Ukrainian processors may lose a key buyer of rapeseed meal next season — forecast

Ukrainian processors risk losing a key export market for rapeseed meal as early as next season due to Canada’s potential return to the Chinese market. China’s demand for Ukrainian meal, which in the 2024/25 MY became a de facto forced alternative to Canadian product, may sharply decline or disappear altogether, Victoria Blazhko, Head of Editorial Content and Analytics at ASAP Agri, told Latifundist.com.

In January 2026, during a visit by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney to Beijing, the parties announced a preliminary agreement on easing trade restrictions. Under this agreement, China may cancel the 100% “anti-discrimination” tariff on Canadian canola meal starting from March 1, 2026, at least until the end of the year.

At the same time, the agreement currently has the status of an agreement in principle. The Canadian side speaks of a future cancellation of the tariff, while China’s Ministry of Commerce refers only to an “adjustment of measures,” without specifying dates or mechanisms. China plans to announce its final decision together with the conclusions of the anti-dumping investigation into rapeseed in March.

Despite this, the market is already behaving as if the decision has been made, Blazhko notes. Chinese importers are booking shipments of Canadian meal for April–June delivery, and Canadian industry associations are publicly discussing the resumption of trade. As of early February, there are no signals indicating a possible collapse of the agreement.

Victoria Blazhko

Head of Editorial Content and Analytics at ASAP Agri

“This is a key moment for Ukraine. The barrier that effectively pushed Canada out of the Chinese market and opened a window of opportunity for Ukrainian meal is highly likely to disappear as early as spring. As a result, Canada is returning to its traditional market”

For Chinese feed mills, Canadian canola meal is a well-established product with consistent quality, predictable logistics, and large volumes. In the absence of tariffs, its economics once again become obvious, while Ukrainian meal loses its status as a no-alternative option.

In the current season, the situation does not look critical: most rapeseed volumes have already been processed, and China effectively became a “lifeline” market for Ukrainian plants during the period when Canadian supply was absent.

“Ukrainian processors have effectively found themselves in a situation where they became accustomed to a large buyer whose demand was not market-driven but forced. With Canada’s return, this forced demand may disappear,” Blazhko added.

She noted that in this case, the key issue is not the volume of shipments to China this season, but the search for alternative sales markets for rapeseed meal next year, if the Chinese direction once again comes under the control of Canadian suppliers.