China’s sudden appetite for Ukrainian rapeseed meal in 2025/26. A market or a moment? — ASAP Agri

In the first half of the 2025/26 season, Ukraine sharply increased its rapeseed meal exports — and this was no coincidence. It was a direct result of internal market shifts, says Victoria Blazhko, Head of Editorial, Content and Analytics at ASAP Agri.

A weak sunflower harvest forced crushers to look for alternative raw materials to keep plants running. Rapeseed became the natural substitute. At the same time, the 10% export duty on rapeseed for traders kept more seed inside the country and pushed additional volumes into processing.

As a result, from July to December, Ukraine exported 334 KMT of rapeseed meal, compared to 203 KMT a year earlier.

But the real story is not the volume. It is the structure.

China suddenly became the leading buyer. In just six months, more than 155 KMT of Ukrainian rapeseed meal was shipped there. In 2024, China was almost absent from this trade flow.

Turkey and Israel also increased purchases, while Europe — traditionally the main destination — moved into the background.

Effectively, China accounted for almost half of Ukraine’s rapeseed meal exports in the first half of the season. Ukrainian crushers became heavily reliant on Chinese demand.

This raises the key question: what is really behind this surge?

Did Ukraine open a new, stable market for rapeseed meal? Or was this only a temporary effect created by the trade conflict between Canada and China, which blocked Canadian canola meal supplies? And most importantly, will this demand remain next season?

How the China–Canada trade war opened a niche for Ukraine

Trade tensions between China and Canada are not new. Each time, canola and its processed products become the primary targets. For Canada, this is a critical export sector. For China, it is a convenient leverage point.

During the latest escalation in 2024–2025, after Canada imposed 100% tariffs on Chinese EVs, steel, and aluminum, Beijing responded through agriculture. On 8 March 2025, China announced a 100% “anti-discrimination” tariff on Canadian canola meal and oil, effective 20 March.

Trade instantly became uneconomic. From January to April 2025, Canada was still shipping 100–200 KMT of canola meal per month to China. But in May, shipments almost disappeared. By June–July, only isolated volumes remained. From August, trade effectively stopped.

In other words, Canadian canola meal exports to China collapsed within just one to two months.

Later, as a separate step, China moved against the raw material itself. On 9 September 2024, an anti-dumping investigation into Canadian rapeseed imports was launched, and on 12 August 2025, China’s Ministry of Commerce announced a preliminary 75.8% anti-dumping duty, effective August 14 in the form of a deposit.

At that moment, a window of opportunity opened for other suppliers, including Ukraine. The Chinese feed market suddenly found itself without one of its key protein sources — and this vacuum had to be filled quickly.

China is the world’s second-largest importer of rapeseed (canola) meal after the United States, importing up to 3 MMT annually. This is a stable, structural demand driven by real protein needs in livestock production.

In the 2024/25 season, Canada accounted for 66% of China’s canola meal imports, the UAE and russia for 20% and 11% respectively, while Ukraine was effectively absent. The Chinese market was critically dependent on Canadian product.

After the 100% tariff, the picture changed dramatically. In July–December 2025/26, Canada’s share fell to 9%. A supply gap emerged, which China quickly filled through alternative channels. The UAE moved into first place with about 40%, largely through re-exports and processing of imported, mostly Canadian and Australian, canola. russia and India increased their presence, and Ukraine appeared with a visible 7% share.

Thus, the growth of Ukrainian rapeseed meal exports to China is not a redistribution of existing shares. It is the emergence of a new supplier in a market where it had not previously existed — a space created only because Canada lost two-thirds of the market.

And the key question now is what will happen to this new structure after March 2026, when Canadian canola meal may return to the Chinese market duty-free.

Canada is returning. What this means for Ukrainian rapeseed meal

In January 2026, during Prime Minister Mark Carney’s visit to Beijing, the two sides announced a preliminary agreement to ease trade restrictions. Under this agreement, China is expected to remove the 100% “anti-discrimination” tariff on Canadian canola meal from 1 March 2026, at least through the end of the year.

An important nuance: this is currently an agreement-in-principle. Canada uses firm wording such as “will be removed,” while China’s Ministry of Commerce speaks more broadly about “adjustments to measures,” without publicly specifying exact details or timelines for meal.

However, the market is already behaving as if the decision has been made. Chinese importers are booking Canadian meal cargoes for April–June loading, Canadian industry associations openly speak of trade recovery, and as of early February, there are no signals of disruption.

For Ukraine, this is critical.

The barrier that pushed Canada out of the Chinese market — and opened a window for Ukrainian meal — is very likely to disappear in spring. Canada returns to its traditional market.

For Chinese feed mills, Canadian canola meal is a familiar, well-established product with predictable logistics, quality, and scale. Once the tariff barrier is lifted, the economics of importing Canadian meal again become obvious.

In such a situation, demand for Ukrainian rapeseed meal may sharply decline or disappear altogether.

For the current season, this is not critical: most rapeseed has already been processed and shipped. But for the 2026/27 season, the picture looks very different.

Ukrainian crushers have effectively grown accustomed to a large buyer whose demand was not market-driven but forced by geopolitics. And with Canada’s return, this forced demand may vanish.

The key question now is not how much meal China bought this season — but where Ukrainian rapeseed meal will be sold next year if the Chinese direction becomes Canadian again.