USDA raises Ukraine sunflower crop forecast, but it remains below last season

The USDA increased its forecast for Ukraine’s sunflower harvest in the March report, raising the estimate for the 2025/26 marketing year to 11 million tons.

The current forecast is 0.5 million tons higher than in the previous USDA report, but 2 million tons lower than the harvest in the 2024/25 marketing year, which totalled 13 million tons.

Analysts estimate sunflower oil production in Ukraine at 4.73 million tons. This is 0.2 million tons higher than the previous forecast, but 0.56 million tons lower than last year’s 5.29 million tons.

The forecast for sunflower meal production stands at 4.54 million tons, which is 0.2 million tons higher than the earlier estimate but 0.54 million tons below the 2024/25 season level of 5.08 million tons.

“Global oilseed production is raised this month as higher sunflowerseed production in Argentina and Ukraine more than offsets lower soybean production in Argentina and Ukraine,” the report reads.