Ukraine could still export over 3 mln tons of wheat by season's end — analysts
Wheat supply in the Black Sea region is expected to remain relatively comfortable through the end of the 2025/26 season, although export dynamics between Russia and Ukraine are increasingly diverging, according to analysts at ASAP Agri.
In Russia, export potential for March–June is estimated at just over 12 million tons, based on the current USDA forecast of 43.5 million tons for the full season. This broadly aligns with last year’s level, indicating sufficient supply on the export market. At the same time, some local analysts point to the possibility of exceeding USDA estimates, which could add around 2 million tons to export potential.
“Ukraine, meanwhile, is following a different path. Despite a lower full-season export forecast, slower shipment rates have resulted in a relatively significant export surplus for the final months of the season. According to ASAP Agri estimates, the volume of available wheat for March–June stands at around 3.3 million tons, only slightly below last year’s 3.7 million tons,” the analysts said.
They add that the key issue is not the availability of volumes, but the pace of sales. Due to slow exports, part of this volume may remain unshipped by the end of the season, increasing the likelihood of substantial carryover stocks into the 2026/27 season.
