Ministry of Economy: carryover grain stocks to decline to 11.3 mln tons by season end

By the end of the 2025/2026 marketing year, Ukraine’s carryover grain stocks are projected at around 11.3 million tons, down from the current estimate of 15.7 million tons, according to market analysts. By the close of the season, storage facilities in Ukraine are expected to hold:

• 4.9 million tons of wheat,
• 1.5 million tons of barley,
• 4.5 million tons of corn.

“Even if export rates remain at the level recorded in April 2026, total carryover stocks by the end of the season could amount to around 11.3 million tons. For comparison, ending stocks at the close of the 2024/25 marketing year stood at 4.9 million tons of grain, including 1.7 million tons of wheat, 0.7 million tons of barley, and 2.3 million tons of corn,” the Ministry of Economy noted.

Export dynamics in the first half of the season were subdued due to objective factors, the ministry explained. These include delays in harvesting the 2025 crop, a shift in wheat export geography amid increased EU production (+23 million tons, from 122 million tons to 145 million tons in the 2025/26 MY), as well as ongoing shelling and destruction of port infrastructure, grain elevators, rail hubs, and bridges.

In addition, the potential grain export volume at the start of the 2025/26 marketing year was estimated at 46.4 million tons — 14% higher than the actual exports in 2024/25 MY (40.7 million tons). As of the end of April 2026, Ukraine exported 30.3 million tons, or 65.2% of that potential.

A broader export base this season partly explains the larger remaining volume yet to be shipped. Initial export projections for 2025/26 MY were 14% higher than last year’s actual exports — 46.4 million tons versus 40.7 million tons in 2024/25 MY. By crop, the potential is also higher: wheat — 17.7 million tons vs 15.8 million tons, corn — 25.3 million tons vs 22.0 million tons, and barley — 2.7 million tons vs 2.3 million tons.

High current grain stocks do not indicate an export slowdown, the Ministry of Economy emphasised, but rather reflect a broader export base and objective constraints in the first half of the season. However, export performance over the past four months — especially in April — shows a catch-up trend.