Ukraine’s Economy Ministry forecasts stable grain harvest. USDA more optimistic on wheat
Ukraine could harvest 60.4 million tons of grain in 2026, roughly in line with last year’s result, according to Taras Vysotskyi, Deputy Minister of Economy, Environment and Agriculture.
The largest surplus is expected in wheat. With domestic demand estimated at 6.4 million tons, total supply, including carryover stocks, could reach around 26.6 million tons.
Vysotskyi said the spring sowing campaign has become more challenging due to cold weather and excessive soil moisture, which delayed the planting of late crops.
The biggest weather-related risks are currently linked to corn, which is highly sensitive to planting timing, temperature and moisture conditions.
At the same time, forecasts for wheat and barley remain stable and are expected to ensure the country’s food balance.
According to preliminary estimates, Ukraine’s 2026 harvest could total:
- wheat — 22.4 million tons,
- barley — 4.7 million tons,
- corn — 31.6 million tons.
Food-grade wheat production is projected at 9.1 million tons, while total supply including stocks could reach up to 11.7 million tons.
USDA forecasts for Ukrainian wheat and corn
On May 12, the United States Department of Agriculture published its first outlook for the 2026/27 marketing year.
The USDA forecasts Ukraine’s wheat harvest at 23 million tons (-1.1 million tons year-on-year), exports at 13 million tons (+0.5 million tons), and ending stocks at 4.53 million tons (+0.9 million tons).
USDA analysts estimate Ukraine’s corn harvest in the 2026/27 marketing year at 30 million tons (-0.9 million tons). Corn exports are projected at 23 million tons (+1 million tons), while ending stocks are forecast at 2.56 million tons (-0.19 million tons).
