Ukrainian rapeseed exports fall to nine-season low, outlook for new marketing year remains subdued
Ukraine's rapeseed exports fell to a nine-season low of 1.9 million tons in the 2025/26 marketing year, according to analysts at APK-Inform.
Shipments declined by 39% compared with the previous marketing year. In addition, for the first time in nearly two decades, less than 60% of Ukraine's total rapeseed supply was exported, compared with an average of 85% in previous seasons.
APK-Inform attributed the decline to several factors. Introduction of a 10% export duty on rapeseed strengthened the competitive position of Ukrainian processors in the domestic market. Export volumes were also affected by a smaller harvest, which fell to a four-year low due to adverse weather conditions, including the spring frosts of 2025.
Another contributing factor was higher rapeseed production in the European Union, the main destination for Ukrainian oilseed exports. Despite the larger domestic crop, the EU continues to rely on imported rapeseed, as local production remains insufficient to meet demand.
The European Union remained the largest buyer of Ukrainian rapeseed, accounting for 91% of total exports, up from 89% a year earlier. In volume terms, shipments to EU countries declined by 38% to 1.73 million tons.
Germany remained the leading importer, purchasing 876,000 tons, down 12% year-on-year. Belgium ranked second with 453,000 tons (-50%), followed by the Netherlands with 247,000 tons (-25%).
Analysts do not expect a significant recovery in exports in the 2026/27 marketing year. This year's rapeseed crop was also affected by sharp temperature fluctuations, while the 10% export duty remains in place.
According to APK-Inform's forecast, Ukraine is expected to harvest around 3.6 million tons of rapeseed in 2026, allowing exports of approximately 2.1–2.2 million tons in the 2026/27 marketing year. While this would represent an 18% increase from 2025/26, it would still remain below the average export volumes recorded in recent years.