Ukraine's grain exports may post worst August result since start of full-scale war
Ukraine's agricultural exports could fall to 1.33 million tons in August 2026, down 54% from July. If the forecast confirms, this would be the lowest August figure since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion, Spike Brokers said.
In the first 15 days of August, Ukraine exported 641,900 tons of agricultural products by all modes of transport. For comparison, total shipments amounted to 2.889 million tons in July.
The expected August result would be 68% below the average for the month in 2022-2025, which stood at 4.19 million tons. It would also be 64% below the previous August low during the full-scale war — 3.71 million tons in 2025.
Amid problems with maritime shipments, the structure of export logistics has changed significantly. The share of sea transport in total agricultural exports fell from 86.5% in July to 51.4% in the first half of August. Meanwhile, rail's share increased from 11.2% to 38.5%.
However, the higher share of rail does not mean an increase in shipment volumes. According to Ukrainian Railways, grain exports by rail fell 68% from the previous month and 77% year-on-year. An actual halt of shipments to seaports was the main reason, which alternative routes have been unable to fully offset.
Rail shipments through western border crossings reached 250,000 tons, up 126% from the same period in July. At the same time, only 53,200 tons were transported toward the deepwater ports, down 94.5%.
The increase in land transportation offset only about 15% of the lost cargo flow toward seaports. Even taking into account higher exports through Izmail, the level of compensation did not exceed 19%.