Constanța may lack capacity to handle Ukrainian agricultural exports — Romanian analyst

Romania’s largest port, Constanța, may face a capacity shortfall in handling Ukrainian and Romanian agricultural products. According to calculations by AGRIColumn analyst Cezar Gheorghe, the shortfall could reach around 11.6 million tons.

According to Gheorghe, Ukrainian sources estimate that 70% of Ukraine’s exports of raw commodities could pass through Romania, while the remaining 30% would move through Poland, Hungary and other neighbouring countries. He estimates the potential volume of Ukrainian cargo routed through Romania at 37.5 million tons.

At the same time, Romania’s own agricultural export potential this year stands at at least 20 million tons.

According to Gheorghe, storage capacity at the Port of Constanța has increased to 2 million tons following the modernisation of the Comvex and Canopus terminals. Assuming 20 turnover cycles per year, the port’s calculated handling capacity is around 40 million tons.

Thus, the combined demand for handling capacity from Ukraine and Romania could reach 57.5 million tons, exceeding the port’s estimated capacity by 17.5 million tons. As Romania has already exported around 5.75–6 million tons, Gheorghe estimates the potential shortfall by the end of the period at 11.6 million tons.

The analyst stressed that the calculation does not include sunflower and rapeseed meal, sunflower and rapeseed oil, or cargoes from Serbia, Hungary and Moldova that also pass through Constanța.

Additional constraints could include the need to separate cargoes by country of origin, different delivery methods to the port, vessel queues and worsening weather conditions during the winter.

According to Gheorghe, the route through Romania remains the simplest and least costly logistics option for Ukraine. At the same time, he believes the Romanian authorities are not sufficiently involved in coordinating operations with the agricultural sector.