Dragon Capital forecasts resumption of Ukraine’s seaborne grain exports in 2027 under a new grain corridor deal
Investment company Dragon Capital expects Ukraine could resume grain exports through its Black Sea ports in 2027 under a diplomatic agreement similar to the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which operated in 2022–2023, according to the company’s updated macroeconomic forecast dated October 8.
Analysts note that intensified Russian attacks since July 2026 have brought cargo shipments through Black Sea ports to an almost complete halt. This has significantly constrained Ukrainian grain exports and worsened the country’s economic outlook.
Dragon Capital estimates that the blockade of Black Sea ports could reduce Ukraine’s real GDP by 2.2%. This forecast already accounts for the partial redirection of agricultural exports to alternative routes, including Danube ports.
However, if seaborne grain exports can be restored before the start of the 2027 spring sowing campaign, the economic losses caused by the blockade could be reduced by 1.5 percentage points, to 0.7% of GDP.
The company believes that seaborne exports could resume under a separate diplomatic agreement covering grain shipments.
“We believe that seaborne grain exports could resume next year as a result of a diplomatic agreement similar to the ‘grain corridor’ that operated in 2022–2023. However, an agreement covering a broader range of targets, including the widely discussed ‘energy truce’, appears unlikely,” the report states.
The blockade of ports and the resulting decline in exports of grain, steel and iron ore have also led Dragon Capital to forecast a record Ukrainian external trade deficit of $71 billion in 2026, equivalent to 31% of GDP.
Overall, the company has downgraded its forecast for Ukraine’s real GDP in 2026 from 1.5% growth to a 0.5% contraction. In 2027, analysts expect the economy to shrink by a further 1%.
