Wheat 2025/26: Season Kick-Off Overview — ASAP Agri
Photo by: Latifundist.com
The new global wheat marketing campaign has started with a bang: record supply, intense competition, and a battle for buyers stretching from Cairo to Jakarta.
France: back in the game (?)
France, the key driver of European exports, is making a comeback on the global stage this season. According to FranceAgriMer, the country’s soft wheat harvest is expected to reach 32.6 MMT — up 27% from last year — with some analysts even forecasting yields above 33 MMT. Such volumes are pushing traders to explore every possible destination — from traditional North African markets to secondary Asian outlets and feed segments within the EU.
This week, Egypt’s state buyer Future of Egypt purchased at least 200 KMT of French wheat for prompt shipment. Market estimates suggest the total volume could reach 400 KMT. However, the outlook for French exports beyond these sales remains uncertain.
Demand from key partners — particularly China — is shrinking, while Algeria continues to avoid French wheat amid ongoing diplomatic tensions. Shipments to both destinations virtually halted last season, leading to the build-up of domestic stocks.
In July, Algeria purchased more than 1 MMT of Black Sea wheat, underscoring the region’s growing dominance. Over the coming months, russia, Ukraine, Romania, and Bulgaria are expected to dictate terms in export markets, leaving Western Europe largely as a niche supplier. Adding to the challenge is the strengthening euro against the U.S. dollar, fueled by policies under the Trump administration, which erodes the competitiveness of French grain in global tenders.
russia: dumping as a strategy
The USDA estimates russia’s wheat crop at 83.5 MMT, while local analysts are already pointing to a potential 85 MMT. Such volumes allow Moscow to maintain its aggressive export strategy, with price dumping remaining its key tool.
This week, Egypt purchased a cargo of russian 12.5% protein wheat at 252 USD/MT CIF, and September offers could drop further to 247–250 USD/MT CIF. This strategy intensifies competition and puts pressure on Ukrainian and European suppliers. On Asian markets, russia’s presence also remains a major factor, further narrowing opportunities for Ukrainian traders.
An important element in this game is the floating export duty introduced in 2021. Since July, it has hovered near zero, creating no barriers to exports and giving russian traders more room for aggressive pricing.
As a result, the combination of a large crop, price dumping, a weak ruble, and flexible duties makes russia the strongest competitor for Ukraine in the race for markets in MENA and Southeast Asia.
Ukraine: same crop, narrower export opportunities
Ukraine’s wheat harvest for 2025/26 MY is estimated at 22 MMT — roughly in line with last year. Yet, steady volumes do not guarantee steady export prospects. Limited access to the European market, tougher competition from russia and other Black Sea exporters, and quality deterioration in some regions due to July rains are complicating the season.
On the physical market as of 19 August, 12.5% protein wheat on an FOB POC basis was offered at 250 USD/MT, while buyers were bidding no higher than 242 USD/MT. In the 11.5% protein segment, offers in the 238–240 USD/MT range saw no demand, with buying ideas closer to 225 USD/MT.
In Egypt, interest in Ukrainian wheat persists: on 19–20 August, buyers quoted 248–249 USD/MT CIF for handy-sized cargoes of 11.5% protein wheat with September shipment, while sellers aimed to keep prices at 250 USD/MT. However, Ukrainian 11.5% protein wheat is increasingly losing ground to russian 12.5% protein wheat, which, at a similar price point, offers better quality.
Ukraine’s feed wheat segment is under mounting pressure: the spread between 11.5% milling wheat and feed wheat has widened from just a few dollars in July to 20 USD/MT by mid-August, driven by a higher share of feed-quality grain from western regions. Weak demand from the EU, constrained by high domestic production and tariff quotas, adds further strain.
As of 20 August, out of the 583 KMT EU import quota for Ukrainian wheat (valid from 6 June to 31 December 2025), roughly 324 KMT has been utilized. About 259 KMT remain, but 19 KMT are already in the allocation process — leaving fewer than 240 KMT effectively available for new contracts through the end of 2025
Thus, the export horizons for Ukrainian wheat have narrowed this season, and in the short term, the market will remain under pressure from excessive global supply, which could lead to further price declines.
Victoria Blazhko, Head of Editorial, Content and Analytics, ASAP Agri