No Crisis: Bulgaria’s Sunflower Crop Could Hit Record Despite Farmer Complaints

Photo by: Latifundist.com

In one of the Bulgarian media, we saw news that sunflower oil prices in Bulgaria had skyrocketed, the harvest had been destroyed, and consumers and processors were hoping for Ukrainian imports to cover the deficit. But is this really what is happening?

Despite Bulgarian farmers and some traders portraying this season’s sunflower crop as the worst in history, the reality looks far less dramatic. According to Preslav Raykov, a Bulgarian vegetable oil and commodity trader, sunflower acreage is at a record high, weather conditions have mostly been favorable, and production could reach up to 2 million tons — a potential all-time record. He explains why the crisis narrative persists, how crushers have adapted faster than farmers, and why Bulgaria’s agricultural sector must align with global market realities to remain competitive.

Latifundist.com: Preslav, let’s start with sunflower. I’ve read in news that farmers, some traders, and parts of the Bulgarian media are portraying the current sunflower situation in Bulgaria as extremely critical, citing drought losses and potential shortages. In your view, is the situation really that severe, and what is the actual state of the crop this season?

Preslav Raykov: I think the claims of a massive crop deficit this year are somewhat exaggerated by farmers. In reality, the area under sunflower cultivation is at a record high for the last decade — about 985,000 hectares, up 6–7% from last year.

When harvesting of sunflower and rapeseed began, weather conditions across Bulgaria were mostly favorable — good humidity, rainfall, optimal sowing times, and good crop establishment. Yes, there were heatwaves and droughts during summer, but nothing like last year’s five consecutive weeks of extreme heat that severely damaged crops. This year, many fields look excellent in terms of plant development and seed quality.

Corn acreage is very low this year because last year’s harvest was devastated, and many farmers switched to sunflower. So I disagree with those saying this is the “worst year in history.” The harvest starts in about a week, and recent rains have further supported crop development. The USDA even projects a 22% year-on-year increase, possibly reaching 2 million tons — a record. I personally expect 1.8–1.9 million tons, compared to 1.4–1.5 million last year.

Yes, some isolated fields are badly affected, but that’s not representative of the whole country. Unfortunately, some farmers present these isolated cases domestically and abroad as a national disaster — which it isn’t.

Latifundist.com: Why would farmers exaggerate crop losses? Do they expect government support?

Preslav Raykov: Partly. Some truly devastated farms will receive compensation, but farmer unions in general often push for subsidies or import restrictions. Last year, crushers had difficulties sourcing seeds and faced farmer price-holding tactics. Many farmers don’t know their real production costs — fertilizer, seeds, crop protection, machinery, labor — and operate inefficiently. These inefficiencies are then pushed onto processors, creating tension.

Five years ago, crushers’ facilities were full by November–December. Now farmers hold stock, waiting for better prices, market disruptions, or Ukrainian supply issues.

Crushers, meanwhile, have adapted. They invested in modifying crushing lines to process multiple crops — rapeseed, canola, soybeans — like Turkish plants do. Last season, Bulgarian crushers even imported canola from Canada profitably. This year, if sunflower supply is tight or overpriced, they can switch to other oilseeds. This flexibility benefits the industry and will force farmers to become more market-oriented.

Read also: Sunflower Squeeze: Why Bulgaria’s Crushers Are Grinding to a Halt

Latifundist.com: Are traders also influencing the market narrative?

Preslav Raykov: Yes. Some well-known Bulgarian traders speculate on crop conditions to support their positions, knowing that small and medium farmers will believe them. The market suffers from informational asymmetry. Farmers need more education on global oilseed dynamics — how Ukraine and russia are doing, where demand is, and how prices move internationally. Romanian farmers have made progress in this over the last few years.

Latifundist.com: How do you see the broader Black Sea and European market this season?

Preslav Raykov: I expect the global sunflower market to be well-supplied. russia forecasts a record 18 million tons and has lifted export duties for sunflower oil and meal — a sign of overcapacity. Ukraine may harvest around 14 million tons of good-quality sunflower, with enough for domestic crushing and exports. Moldova, Romania, Serbia, Croatia, Hungary also expect strong crops.

This means the market will not be as tight as some Bulgarian farmers claim. They predict 1.2–1.3 million tons for Bulgaria, while major institutions project 1.8–2 million — the gap is huge.

Latifundist.com: You’ve mentioned farmers’ mentality several times. Could you elaborate?

Preslav Raykov: Sorry for saying that, but I will be honest. Some local farmers still rely on events like port bombings in Ukraine to push prices up, which is deeply problematic. Many avoid international industry events where they could meet buyers, crushers, and logistics providers. Ukrainian, Croatian, and Romanian farmers attend — Bulgarians rarely do.

Farmers here are too dependent on the government. A “war premium” compensation for the war in Ukraine is still being paid three years later, despite falling fertilizer, fuel, seed, and crop protection costs, and minimal Ukrainian imports. Some influential farmer groups even discourage peers from selling below certain price targets to maintain market control.

Let's recall the case where imported Canadian rapeseed, shipped thousands of kilometers, was cheaper at the crusher gate than rapeseed from a farm just 1 km away. If farmers don’t adapt, they will be priced out.

Latifundist.com: How about Bulgaria’s wheat harvest this year?

Preslav Raykov: Wheat was excellent — 7.1 million tons of high-quality grain with perfect weather and harvest conditions. Yet farmers still complain because prices are lower due to abundant supply. They want high yields, high prices, and high demand simultaneously — which is unrealistic.

Another issue is port competitiveness. Varna and Burgas are less developed than Constanta, with higher costs for services like phytosanitary control — up to 10 times higher than in Romania. This pushes buyers toward Romanian ports, reducing demand for Bulgarian grain. Farmers should be lobbying to improve infrastructure, but again, vested interests hold the sector back.

So, this season, crushers are better positioned than farmers. They have diversified crushing capabilities and can source globally. Farmers need to adapt quickly, align with industry realities, and stop relying on subsidies and protectionism. Those who do will stay in the game; those who don’t will exit.

Sofiia Yaroshenko, Latifundist.com