The global cereal stocks in 2018/19 down 65 mln tons — FAO

FAO informs that the forecast of global cereal stocks by the close of the seasons ending in 2019 has been lowered by 7.1 million tons, to a 4-year low of 741.8 million tons, down as much as 65 million tons, or 8 percent, from their record high opening levels.

This would result in the global cereal stock-to-use ratio sliding to 27.3 percent, the lowest since 2013/14.

"Most of the projected decline in 2018/19 is the result of reductions foreseen in China, the EU and the Russian Federation. This month’s downward revision in projected wheat production has prompted a significant revision to the forecast of wheat stocks, now pegged at 252 million tons, which would be down nearly 12 million tons from July and 21.4 million tons (7.8 percent) from their all-time high opening levels," the report says.

At the current forecast level, the ratio of major wheat exporters’ closing stocks to their total disappearance (defined as domestic utilization plus exports), which is considered a good measure of availability in global markets, would drop to a 6-year low of 15.3 percent, well below the 20.8 percent estimated for 2017/18.

"By contrast, the FAO forecast for maize inventories has been lifted since July by almost 7 million tons. However, despite this increase, global maize reserves would still fall significantly (by 13.6 percent) below their opening levels, dropping to 267 million tons, which would make them hit their lowest level in six years," FAO specialists project.

Previously it was reported that in Ukraine the production and stocks of both sunflower and sunflower oil would be significant by the end of the next season, which would put pressure on prices both domestic and export.

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