FAO forecasts the international 2018/19 grain trade at 416 mln t

International trade in all grains is forecast to approach 416 million tons in 2018/19, a fall of 5.7 million tons (1.4 pct) from the previous season’s record volume, FAO writes. Trade in all the major grains, except for corn, is seen to contract in 2018/19.

World wheat trade in 2018/19 (July/June) is pegged at 171.8 million tons, slightly lower than the December forecast but down 4.4 million tons (2.5 pct) from 2017/18. The decline from the previous season reflects expectations of smaller purchases by Algeria, India, Morocco, South Africa, Turkey and the United States, more than offsetting higher imports by the EU and several Asian countries.

Global trade in coarse grains in 2018/19 (July/June) is forecast at 196.4 million tons, down marginally from December and now almost unchanged from the previous year’s level with increased exports of corn offsetting slow-downs in the trade of both barley and sorghum.

Corn trade in 2018/19 is now forecast at almost 159 million tons, 2.3 pct (3.5 million tons) higher than in 2017/18, with the year-on-year increase resulting from expected to larger purchases by Iran, Mexico and Saudi Arabia, but above all by the EU as corn prices remain competitive compared to other feed grains.

Barley trade in 2018/19 is expected to fall to 28.1 million tons and sorghum trade to 5.4 million tons — its lowest level since 2006/07 — both on lower import prospects by China.

As previously reported, corn exports from Ukraine as of February 6th reached 13.03 million tons having increased by 4.45 million tons as compared with the previous year's comparative period.

The new infographic guide Agribusiness of Ukraine 2017/18 is available by the link.

Grain production worldwide (click for full resolution)

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