Experts analyze threats and opportunities for Ukrainian agribusiness at Grain Ukraine 2019
Market experts and analysts gave a preview of forecasts regarding Ukraine, which will be discussed during Grain Ukraine conference held in Odessa May 24-25.
According to the managing director at TRADAIDE and moderator of the analytical and trade sections of the conference, Ivanna Dorichenko, the Black Sea grain is in a rather privileged position, since it has already occupied a serious niche in international consumer markets and continues to move forward steadily, often bypassing its competitors — Europe, States and Australia. Therefore, today, more than ever, it is important to retain this advantage in already loyal markets and continue to expand the geography of supply.
Although China's economy is growing more than 6 per cent annually, the giant remains price-sensitive, which is good for Ukrainian grain traders. “China’s market is one of the most promising for us,” comments the President of the Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) Nikolay Gorbachov. “In the current situation of the trade war between the United States and China, we, as a supplier of grain, are in an advantageous position. Our main method and instrument of competition is the price!”
Miriam Morath, Senior Economic Analyst at International Grains Council (IGC), says that there could be an opportunity for Ukrainian rapeseed farmers if Chinese authorities were to grant phytosanitary permissions for rapeseed imports from Ukraine.
“Since trade relations between the US and China got more difficult, farmers from Brazil mainly filled the gap in soybean arrivals. However, demand from China has also been slowing, partly linked to the aggressive outbreak of African Swine Fever,” comments Miriam.
Amid record demand and only a minor supply expansion, a third successive depletion of global stocks is predicted. And it will take at least three good seasons to rebuild stock levels, predicts Miriam Morath.
Enzo Merluzzi, Analyst at Avere Commodities SA, will share his forecast for the global corn and wheat markets for 2019/2020.
“Large supplies in corn and wheat dominate the 2019/2020 balance sheet but adverse weather could still reshape the balance sheets, US corn acres are becoming a real concern. The threat to Ukrainian farmers is in predicting the stability of future yields, especially the corn ones. Can Ukraine repeat last year's spectacular corn yields? Are we witnessing a structural change in corn productivity as US and South America are experiencing or it happened occasionally?” comments Mr. Merluzzi.
The focus of this year's event is expert round tables, which allow participants to see different points of view and discuss relevant issues.