Ample supply of Ukrainian corn presses CBOT prices

Ukraine is poised to harvest a second record corn crop in 2019/20 marketing year with expectations of 33,1 million mt already floated, according to the Agrarian Ministry forecast, agriCENSUS reports.

"For now, the market is strongly warming up and… it seems that, until the situation becomes more clear, the swing will continue," a Ukraine-based trader said.

According to Agricensus market sources, Ukraine’s new crop corn offers are resisting the upward moves seen on corn futures to catapult the region into contention as one of the most competitive origins globally.

However, a lack of demand is continuing to dog trading activity, as traders in many destination markets eye the impact of sharply higher prices and the further spread of African swine fever.

"Until August, Argentina is the most competitive. For September, Brazil is USD 1-2/mt lower than Argentina, (but) from October onwards, I think, Brazil or Ukraine's new crop is the most competitive, depending on the destination," an Asia-based told Agricensus.

The development represents a major challenge to the recent dominance of South American supply and comes as Ukrainian new crop offers — often expressed as outright prices — have outgunned Argentine and Brazilian offers that typically price as a premium to corn futures.

Bad weather conditions and delayed corn crop planting in the US have brought volatility to the Chicago Board of Trade in the last few weeks, with the July futures contract rising 24 per cent from USD 3.51/bu on May 10 to hit USD 4.36/bu by May 30.

Learn more: TOP 10 Corn Exporters from Ukraine in 2018

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