Ukrainian grain prices rebounded — ASAP Agri
The supply and demand prices for Ukrainian grains have grown by 1-2 USD/t on the previous week. Offers of 11.5% protein wheat have risen to 215-216 USD/t FOB deepwater ports and 216-217 USD/t FOB Danube ports, ASAP Agri analysts told Latifundist.com.
"But while this was anticipated for milling wheat, for feed wheat it is mostly a “corn-supported” action. Given the rather high supply, the growth prospects for feed wheat are rather limited and will depend on the further entry of buyers into the market. Corn ‘shrugged’ with the emergence of buyers on destinations, but mainly November positions," the message reads.
For the coming two months, traders have already concluded quite a few contracts at non-best prices, analysts say.
"November is considered to be more risky, as China is traditionally supposed to be more active in this period, as it is waiting for us to get rid of old stocks to come for fresh ones," ASAP Agri experts added.
Local fundamentals give farmers some hope. Market participants estimated that despite the smaller grain harvest this year, export is going at full speed. In July-August, customs handled 58% more grain for export than the year ago. The biggest jump is observed for barley — up 121% y/y, followed by wheat — up 87%, and corn, that still does not give up at the end of the season, — up 14%.
Analysts say the market has it that Turkey may lift its ban on wheat imports, expiring on October 15. Also, market participants' attention is returning to the weather factor and the sowing campaign. However, rapeseed planting pace is 47% lower than last year, when the weather was also dry.
As for wheat and barley, sowing has just begun and the pace is slightly slower that last year.
"There is more faith in milling wheat and corn prices, feed grain should follow corn, barley is likely to maintain a $10 spread with feed, or move a little further away," analysts said.
