Shifting toward soybean crushing in Ukraine amid negative sunseed margins — ASAP Agri

Over the past two months, Ukraine has twice set new records for monthly soybean oil exports, reaching 40 KMT in Oct and 43 KMT in Nov. This trend could very well persist in the months ahead. Soybean crushing continues to offer positive margins for crushers, unlike the sunflower complex market, where margins have been in negative territory over the past two months, Olivier Bouillet, the Head of Analytics & Insights at ASAP Agri, told Latifundist.com.

However, a notable decline in sunflower seed prices observed since the beginning of this week has allowed sunflower crushers’ margins to recover from negative values to break even, the analyst adds. Nevertheless, the physical seed coverage of these operators remains precarious, and a new battle between crushers is already anticipated as activity resumes after the holiday period.

Between Sep and Dec, nearly 2 MMT of sunflower oil will have been exported, implying that approximately 4.5 MMT of sunflower seeds have been crushed so far. This is against a total production figure of 10.1 MMT reported by AgMin. In this context, a substantial and sustained improvement in sunflower-crushing margins appears unlikely.

Olivier Bouillet

Head of Analytics & Insights at

 ASAP Agri

"For the second half of the campaign, it thus seems clear that sunseed availability will not satisfy everyone’s appetite. As a result, a significant proportion of factories will be forced to slow down their operations or, for those with the capability, to switch to soybeans in particular."

Beyond margins, the record soybean harvest in Ukraine this year also supports such an adaptation. If last season saw 320 KMT of soybean oil exported from Ukraine, the current pace suggests a figure nearing 500 KMT for this season.