Strong start, tight Finish: Ukraine faces tight export supplies in second half of 2024/25 — ASAP Agri

As the New Year approaches, the first half of the 2024/25 export campaign comes to an end. Despite a smaller harvest compared to last year, Ukraine has achieved higher export activity during this period than in the previous season. This success can largely be attributed to the smooth operation of deep-water ports over the summer, unlike last season when the Danube was the only waterway available for exports, Olivier Bouillet, the Head of Analytics & Insights at ASAP Agri, told Latifundist.com.

However, due to this strong start and the reduced harvest, export availability for the second half of the campaign is expected to be limited.

Strong start to grain exports

Between 1 Jul and 31 Dec 2024, Ukraine's grain exports are estimated at 18.9 MMT, an increase from 15.4 MMT during the same period last year. This includes:

• wheat: 10 MMT, up from 7.6 MMT in 2023/24;
• barley: 2 MMT, up from 1.1 MMT in 2023/24;
• corn: 6.9 MMT of new-crop corn, up from 6.7 MMT in 2023/24.

However, export availability for the remainder of the 2024/25 marketing year is significantly lower:

• wheat: 6.5 MMT, down from 11 MMT in 2023/24;
• barley: 0.5 MMT, down from 2.4 MMT in 2023/24;
• corn: 17.1 MMT, down from 18.5 MMT in 2023/24.

Given these reduced volumes, the analyst says rationing will likely be necessary for wheat and barley. This has already been reflected in the domestic market, where prices for these two products remain strong, even as major exporters compete fiercely to attract key importers.

Oilseed export dynamics

The situation for oilseeds is similar, with lower export availability across most products, except for soybeans. Remaining volumes for export include:

• rapeseed: 0.7 MMT, unchanged from 2023/24;
• sunflower oil: 3.1 MMT, down from 4.3 MMT in 2023/24;
• soybeans: 2.5 MMT, up from 1.6 MMT in 2023/24.

While final figures for most products are unlikely to change significantly, soybeans could disrupt expectations. The ongoing competition between crushers and exporters to secure soybean volumes, driven by better margins than sunflower, is likely to result in fewer soybeans being exported than anticipated by the USDA. Instead, more soybean oil and meal may be produced.

With limited export volumes available for the second half of the campaign, fobbing and logistics costs are expected to remain lower than last year.