February: a pivotal month for U.S. corn and soybean acreage decisions — ASAP Agri

As February begins, soybeans appear undervalued relative to corn in the U.S. market. The soybean-to-corn price ratio on CBOT for the 2025 harvest has dropped to 2 — its lowest level in years, making corn the more attractive option for U.S. farmers. Logically, this imbalance could shift planting decisions in favour of corn at the expense of soybeans, Olivier Bouillet, the Head of Analytics & Insights at ASAP Agri, told Latifundist.com.

Olivier Bouillet

Head of Analytics & Insights at

 ASAP Agri

"However, nothing is set in stone just yet! February is a decisive month for U.S. farmers when finalizing acreage decisions — and the reason lies in the Farm Bill. This program determines the minimum crop insurance price based on average February prices, directly influencing planting choices."

History shows that when the soybean-to-corn price ratio is unusually low — as it was in 2022 — a notable rebound in the ratio often follows during February, the analyst explains. This suggests that either soybean prices for the 2025 harvest must fall, or corn prices must rise to restore balance.

Given that U.S. soybeans are currently priced nearly 50 USD/MT higher than Brazilian soybeans for Chinese buyers, we lean toward a relative drop in soybean prices as the more likely scenario, Mr Bouillet concludes.