February WASDE report: nonevent for market — ASAP Agri

The February WASDE report had little impact on the market, in stark contrast to last month’s edition, which revealed significant cuts in U.S. corn and soybean stocks. This time, the USDA left ending stocks for both crops unchanged, despite market expectations of slight reductions due to the strong export activity, particularly for corn, Olivier Bouillet, the Head of Analytics & Insights at ASAP Agri, told Latifundist.com. As a result, traders largely dismissed the report as a nonevent.

That said, it did provide a few key insights:

China’s grain demand revised downward

The USDA lowered its estimates for Chinese grain imports in 2024/25, citing weaker-than-expected buying activity. Corn import projections were reduced by 3 MMT to 10 MMT, while wheat imports were cut by 2.5 MMT to 8 MMT. These figures have been circulating in the market for weeks, and many traders expect actual imports to decline even further.

South American weather takes a toll

For the first time, the USDA factored in the impact of adverse weather conditions in South America since December. Argentina’s 2024/25 corn and soybean production estimates were trimmed by 1 MMT and 3 MMT, respectively, due to ongoing drought concerns. In Brazil, delays in soybean harvesting are expected to affect the second corn crop (safrinha). As a result, Brazilian corn production is now forecasted at 126 MMT for 2024/25, down 1 MMT from previous estimates.

Olivier Bouillet

Head of Analytics & Insights at

ASAP Agri

"With no major surprises, the market responded accordingly, posting only minor losses for corn, wheat, and soybeans. Overall, this February update is seen as neutral to slightly bearish, given China’s reduced appetite for imports."

In the short term, market focus will remain on how tariff policies affect demand for U.S. commodities, as well as ongoing weather developments in South America.