Ukraine’s rapeseed output: a projected drop to 3.2-3.5 MMT in 2025/26? — ASAP Agri
Ukraine’s 2025/26 rapeseed campaign has faced significant challenges. Moisture deficits in southeastern regions and irregular weather patterns have disrupted sowing, raising concerns about final production volumes. Meanwhile, Europe has also encountered setbacks, particularly in France, where excessive rainfall has impacted planting, Olivier Bouillet, the Head of Analytics & Insights at ASAP Agri, told Latifundist.com.
With weather disruptions in Ukraine and Europe, is a tighter global rapeseed market on the horizon? Let’s analyze the situation.
Ukraine: sowing struggles and production risks
Olivier Bouillet
Head of Analytics & Insights at
ASAP Agri
"Ukraine’s 2025/26 sowing faced delays due to severe moisture deficits across the southeastern regions. As a result, the total area declined by 130 KHA compared to last year, with the AgMin reporting a total of 1.123 MHA planted. However, not all of this area will make it through the winter."
Poor germination has been observed, particularly east of the Dnipro River, due to extreme dryness. Additionally, recent frosts have caused partial crop destruction, with underdeveloped stands hit the hardest.
While harvested acreage is expected to be lower than last year, past trends suggest that final harvested areas can sometimes exceed initial sowing estimates.
What production to expect in Ukraine?
One thing is certain: Ukraine’s rapeseed production in 2025/26 will be lower than in 2024/25. At this stage, a 3.2-3.5 MMT range seems reasonable, down from 3.75 MMT harvested this season.
However, Ukraine’s final balance sheet remains uncertain, especially considering this season’s weak crush activity compared to last year’s record levels.
EU outlook: mixed signals
In Europe, the situation is equally complex. France has confirmed a decline in rapeseed acreage, with the AgMin revising its estimates downward from pre-Christmas projections. The total area in 2025/26 is now expected to reach 1.27 MHA, a 4.1% drop from last year, largely due to excessive autumn rainfall.
Meanwhile, Germany’s acreage is projected to increase slightly to 1.1 MHA, while Romania has emerged as a key focus for buyers, with harvested areas expected to exceed initial sowing estimates — a trend seen in previous years.
That said, for now, production expectations in the EU remain positive, with Strategie Grains raising its 2025/26 EU rapeseed production forecast from 18.7 MMT to 19 MMT at the start of February, primarily due to higher acreage in Romania. This is higher than 16.9 MMT the EU harvested in 2024/25, according to the European Commission.
