No lift-off for rapeseed prices as wheat keeps it grounded — ASAP Agri

Just as U.S. farmers closely monitor the soybean-to-corn ratio before making spring planting decisions, European producers tend to watch the rapeseed-to-wheat price ratio. Interestingly, these two ratios currently tell very different stories, Olivier Bouillet, the Head of Analytics & Insights at ASAP Agri, told Latifundist.com.

Olivier Bouillet

Head of Analytics & Insights at

ASAP Agri

"In the U.S., the soybean/corn ratio points to relatively expensive corn. In Europe, it’s the opposite dynamic: rapeseed — the oilseed — is looking pricey compared to wheat."

For the 2025 harvest, the rapeseed/wheat ratio on Euronext has climbed above 2.25, well above the “normal” level of around 2.0. This suggests that rapeseed prices are unlikely to rise further in the short term unless wheat prices also recover. So far, that doesn’t look likely — wheat remains under heavy pressure, with prices continuing to decline.

In fact, despite the downward pressure, Euronext rapeseed has already lost 35 EUR/MT in recent months, largely due to a weakening U.S. dollar, the analyst explains.

As a result, the 520+ USD/MT CPT price for new-crop Ukrainian 42% oil rapeseed — recently secured by some farmers through forward contracts — may remain out of reach in the near term.