Ukraine's new-crop wheat prices already feeling harvest pressure? — ASAP Agri

Wheat prices on Euronext rebounded sharply yesterday, with the September contract (reflecting the new crop) jumping nearly 6.75 EUR/MT — equivalent to about 7 USD/MT, even amid a stronger euro. This rally was fueled by a combination of factors: worsening U.S. winter wheat conditions, possible frost damage in parts of russia, and a state of emergency declared in key wheat-producing regions of China due to extreme heat, Olivier Bouillet, the Head of Analytics & Insights at ASAP Agri, told Latifundist.com.

Despite this bullish momentum on the futures market, indicative bids from major Ukrainian port buyers in the Black Sea region remained surprisingly steady this morning on a CPT basis. This signals that the discount between Ukrainian wheat and the Euronext benchmark is widening — a pattern typically seen as harvest season approaches.

Based on current CPT prices, the discount for new crop wheat is now around 35 USD/MT, compared to the 25 USD/MT average seen in April–May.

Olivier Bouillet

Head of Analytics & Insights at

ASAP Agri

"Although the Ukrainian harvest is expected to be slightly delayed due to frost episodes and unusually cool temperatures throughout May, early July deliveries could still command a small premium. However, broader competition between origins is expected to intensify. Russian wheat is currently offered at low to mid-220 USD/MT FOB for the early season, while French wheat continues to struggle to secure outlets for July–September shipments — particularly as Algerian buyers remain on the sidelines due to ongoing diplomatic tensions with France."

In short, despite the strong bounce in futures, physical buyers in the Black Sea region remain cautious and are preparing for harvest pressure. For now, weather remains the only variable that could ignite a lasting bullish trend in an otherwise well-supplied global wheat market.