Speculative funds deepen short bets on CBOT wheat: what’s driving the trend? — ASAP Agri
Speculative short positions on CBOT wheat have recently hit a new record high — the largest in more than seven years. What’s driving funds to keep selling wheat? A mix of fundamental, technical, and sentiment-driven factors helps explain the trend, Olivier Bouillet, the Head of Analytics & Insights at ASAP Agri, told Latifundist.com.
- Heavy global fundamentals. The overall global wheat balance remains burdensome. The USDA’s latest projections for the 2025/26 season offered little to shift the mood. Major exporters — particularly russia, the EU, and Australia — still have ample exportable supplies. russian wheat, offered aggressively around mid- to high-220 USD/MT FOB for the new crop, continues to undercut rivals.
- Favorable weather conditions. Weather is offering no help to bulls. In the U.S., winter wheat conditions are improving. In Ukraine and Russia, recent rains have boosted confidence in the upcoming harvest. Europe has some localized dryness, especially in northern France, but nothing alarming so far. In short, there is no “weather market” — no widespread crop threat to stir up a rally. Without a weather-related catalyst, buyers remain hesitant.
- Bearish momentum and technical selling. Funds are also riding the momentum. The trend is clearly downward, and every bounce is seen as a fresh selling opportunity. Net short positions remain large on both the Chicago and Euronext wheat markets, reinforcing a bearish narrative.
Adding to this, producers are reluctant to sell at current low prices, which limits physical market activity. The absence of strong commercial buying gives speculators little reason to step back.
In summary, speculators are betting on further price weakness in a market that lacks short-term bullish drivers. Unless a disruptive event — such as a weather shock, geopolitical escalation, or trade disruption — emerges, funds are unlikely to reverse their stance. That said, any sharp shift back to fund buying could trigger an equally sharp rebound.