Wheat’s false spring: rebound fades as harvest pressure drags prices lower — ASAP Agri
The global wheat market resumed its downward trajectory this week, giving back the brief gains seen after last week’s technical rebound. The broader commodities complex also softened following the Iran–Israel truce, which eased geopolitical tensions and dragged down agricultural futures alongside energy and metals, Victoria Blazhko, Head of Editorial, Content & Analytics at ASAP Agri, told Latifundist.com.
On the futures markets, both Chicago and Paris wheat contracts turned lower. Euronext September wheat is once again flirting with the 200 EUR/MT support level — a key psychological and technical threshold. CBOT September wheat closed at 5.52 USD/BU on 24 June, down 3.1% on the day and roughly the same over the week. In the U.S., crop progress data released at the start of the week failed to provide any meaningful support. The USDA reported that the winter wheat harvest was 19% complete as of 22 June — slightly below the 20% expected by the market and well behind the five-year average of 38%.
Meanwhile, crop conditions continue to deteriorate. Only 49% of the U.S. winter wheat crop is rated good/excellent, down 3 percentage points w/w and below trade expectations. Spring wheat condition ratings also fell, with just 54% rated good/excellent versus 71% this time last year. Meanwhile, sunny and dry weather in the U.S. Plains has allowed winter wheat fields to dry out after the heavy rains of recent weeks, with harvest expected to pick up pace significantly in the coming days.
Across the Black Sea and Europe, the tone remains similarly bearish. russia’s AgMin now forecasts a massive 90 MMT wheat crop — well above last season. Harvesting has already begun, and early yields are supporting the bearish sentiment.
In the EU, stronger yields in the south are offsetting dryness in the north, but the overall increase in expected volume is adding further weight to Paris wheat prices. Current dryness in parts of Europe is unlikely to cause significant damage to wheat, as most of the crop is already past critical development stages. Concerns are higher for spring barley, which is more vulnerable at this point.
Despite the weakness across global benchmarks, the Ukrainian market has remained relatively resilient, for now. On 23–24 June, offers for 11.5% protein wheat on an FOB POC basis were seen around 225 USD/MT for August-loading panamax and handysize shipments, supported by steady demand from the Eastern Mediterranean and Asia, particularly Egypt, Bangladesh, and Indonesia. Bids, however, remained in the mid-210s USD/MT. But with the global market trending lower and harvest just beginning, a downward correction in Ukrainian prices appears to be only a matter of time.
Victoria Blazhko
Head of Editorial, Content & Analytics at ASAP Agri
"Note that ASAP Agri forecasts Ukraine’s 2025/26 wheat crop at 21.74 MMT, reflecting a 3% y/y decline. The estimate is based on field visits across eight key wheat-producing regions of the country and does not include territories currently under temporary russian occupation."
