Ukraine’s wheat harvest seen below 22 MMT in 2025/26 — forecast

Ukraine’s wheat production in the 2025/26 marketing year is projected at 21.74 million tons, down 3% year-on-year, according to ASAP Agri.

The estimate is based on field tours to eight key wheat-producing regions and excludes territories currently under temporary russian occupation. The nationwide average yield is forecast at 4.37 tons per hectare, 3.5% below last season.

Harvesting is expected to accelerate by June 25. ASAP Agri puts the country’s wheat export potential at 15.5 million tons but sets its export forecast at 15 million tons, citing EU import quotas and rising competition from russian wheat in Turkey and Asia.

The USDA previously forecast Ukraine’s wheat harvest at 23 million tons, with exports at 16.5 million tons.