Exporters forced to compete for China-certified barley despite losses — Barva Invest

Several Ukrainian exporters are actively competing to secure barley certified for shipment to China, with the first 3–4 vessels expected to arrive soon for loading, according to Bohdan Kostetskyi, co-owner and operating partner at Barva Invest, as reported by Latifundist.com. In total, 9 to 11 Panamax-class vessels have been sold.

He noted that exporters have low coverage levels, while farmers, backed by sufficient working capital, are taking a speculative approach. This creates a seller’s market, with barley prices currently rising to $208 per ton (CPT deep-sea port, equivalent to ~9,900 UAH/t).

“Traditionally, Ukrainian producers are busy harvesting and waiting for peak prices. The current price support is mainly driven by the fact that barley sold to China must be of Ukrainian origin. Breaking contract obligations would cost exporters tens of dollars per ton. As a result, exporters are forced to compete for China-certified barley, even if purchase prices are unprofitable,” Kostetskyi explained.

This view is echoed by a grain trader, who added that the impact of spring frosts on yields and farmers’ reluctance to sell during the harvest should have been factored in at the sales stage, as these are also fueling market tension.

“We didn’t chase those deals — we’re buying whatever we can at 9,200–9,250 UAH/t. No fixed plan for the batch: we’ll sell whatever we manage to buy,” the trader commented.