Chicago corn futures falling, Ukrainian forward prices rising, but for how long? — ASAP Agri
CBOT corn futures and Ukrainian CPT-port prices have once again moved in opposite directions. A similar pattern emerged in the spring, when prices for old-crop Ukrainian corn were rising even as the Chicago market declined. The focus has now shifted to the new crop: December CBOT futures are trending downward, while Ukrainian forward prices — until recently — had been climbing, says Victoria Blazhko, Head of Editorial, Content and Analytics at ASAP Agri.
Two markets — two directions
A price chart comparing December 2025 CBOT futures and Ukrainian forward contracts (CPT POC basis, October–November delivery) clearly illustrates the divergence in trends. At the end of 2024, both prices hovered around 180 USD/MT. But starting in January, they began moving apart: in July, futures dropped to 162/MT, while Ukrainian forwards confidently broke above the 210 USD/MT mark. The basis for the 2025/26 crop currently exceeds 40 USD/MT — twice the average level for this period, creating a favourable window for sellers willing to lock in attractive prices.
The pressure on CBOT corn is driven by a combination of favourable weather in the U.S., strong South American supply, and macroeconomic headwinds for futures markets.
- Favorable weather in the U.S.
Over 70% of U.S. corn is rated in good to excellent condition, with weather across much of the Midwest remaining ideal for pollination and grain fill. As a result, December CBOT corn futures have dropped from 185 to 162 USD/MT since late April.
- China holds back, Brazil floods the market
China, once the top corn importer, has shown limited buying interest this season — a trend that is expected to continue into the new marketing year. Meanwhile, South America — especially Brazil — is harvesting a near-record crop, intensifying global competition.
- Macro pressures and speculative Selling
Corn futures remain under pressure due to a strengthening U.S. dollar and aggressive liquidation of fund positions. The U.S. Dollar Index is nearing 100 as markets abandon hopes for a rapid Fed rate cut. While some analysts still anticipate the first cut in September, sentiment has turned cautious, with rates now expected to remain high through year-end. This reduces U.S. export competitiveness and limits futures market recovery. Net speculative positions in corn remain deeply negative — at minus 134,000 contracts — adding to the downward pressure on CBOT and widening the gap with firmer physical markets.
In Ukraine, growing conditions remain uneven. Drought continues to impact the east, south, and parts of central regions, posing risks during critical growth phases. In contrast, crops in the north and west are generally in good condition. While excessive rainfall in those areas raises concerns about disease and localized field flooding, overall crop development remains positive. Amid uncertainty over final yields, farmers remain reluctant to make large forward sales, keeping prices above 205 USD/MT CPT POC.
What’s next: two possible paths
Under current conditions, the market is likely to follow one of two paths: either CBOT futures begin recovering lost ground, or physical prices for Ukrainian corn gradually decline to align more closely with the weaker futures market. In this context, the August USDA WASDE report, set for release on 12 August, could be a key trigger for a reassessment of market expectations — both for the U.S. crop and the global balance.
The outlook for Ukraine’s corn market will largely depend on the weather and final yield results. Losses in the south, east, and parts of the central regions are already seen as irreversible. Meanwhile, the north and west retain strong yield potential thanks to more favourable agro-meteorological conditions.
Against this backdrop, two key production scenarios have emerged for Ukraine’s 2025/26 corn crop:
- Optimistic — over 30 MMT: Assumes strong yields in the west, north, and parts of central Ukraine, where weather has been generally favourable.
- Cautious — around 27 MMT: Reflects the impact of prolonged drought in the south and east and uneven crop conditions elsewhere.
Currently, the market leans toward the optimistic scenario, which — along with declining feed wheat prices — has already helped stall further forward price gains.