August WASDE for corn on bearish radar amid growing U.S. crop expectations — ASAP Agri
The USDA’s upcoming 12 August WASDE is set to be far more eventful than July’s relatively routine update, especially for corn. After weeks of favourable weather, the market is bracing for upward revisions in U.S. yield and production estimates for the 2025/26 season. The key question is: by how much, points Victoria Blazhko, Head of Editorial, Content and Analytics at ASAP Agri.
August WASDE likely to confirm stronger U.S. corn supply outlook
As of early August 2025, the U.S. corn crop is in very good condition, supported by abundant summer rainfall and moderate temperatures during key growth stages. Top-producing states such as Iowa and Minnesota are reporting strong yield potential, while previously stressed areas in Illinois and the western Plains have largely recovered.
The USDA’s July report pegged the national average yield at 181 BU/ACR (≈ 11.4 M/HA) and total production at 15.7 BLN BU (≈ 399 MMT). Given current field conditions, both figures are expected to rise.
Historically, favourable crop years often bring upward revisions in August, with yield estimates rising an average of 3.7 BU/ACR. A bump into the 183–185 BU/ACR range (≈ 11.5–11.6 MT/HA) now seems plausible. Each additional bushel per acre adds approximately 86–87 MLN BU (≈ 2.1–2.2 MMT) to total production, assuming a harvested area of around 86.8 MLN ACR (≈ 35.1 million hectares).
That means even a 2–4 BU/ACR increase could boost production by about 170–350 MLN BU (≈ 4.2–8.8 MMT). Some private analysts go even further — StoneX, for example, projects yields at 188.1 BU/ACR (≈ 11.8 MT/HA). If USDA even partially follows that path, a crop size of around 16 BLN BU (≈ 406-407 MMT) is within reach. This would top last year’s 377.6 MMT and surpass the previous record of 389.7 MMT, set just in 2023.
Rising yield, rising ending stocks?
As of July, USDA forecast ending stocks for 2025/26 at 1.66 BLN BU (≈ 42.2 MMT), an increase from 1.34 BLN BU (34 MMT) in 2024/25. But if yield is raised and demand stays flat, stocks will climb further.
A yield revision to 185 BU/ACR could push 2025/26 U.S. corn ending stocks to 2 BLN BU (≈ 50.8 MMT), assuming no change in demand. This would mark the highest carryout since the 2019/20 season and signal a much more comfortable U.S. balance sheet.
Even if the USDA raises demand projections — for example, for exports or ethanol — the stocks-to-use ratio is still expected to rise. This would reflect a heavier supply-demand environment and likely apply further downward pressure on CBOT futures prices, which are already hovering near multi-month lows.
CBOT corn traders on alert
The CBOT corn market is not merely waiting for the report publication — it’s retreating. The December 2025 contract slipped to 4 USD/BU. Futures remain firmly below key technical thresholds, with traders continuing to sell into weakness. The tone is heavy, but increasingly cautious as the market is holding its breath ahead of a potential shift.
Technical indicators point to an oversold market that remains exposed to further downside. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 35, nearing the oversold threshold of 30. Futures continue to trade well below both the 20-day (4.14 USD/BU) and 200-day (4.43 USD/BU) moving averages, which are both sloping downward — reinforcing the prevailing bearish momentum.
This setup suggests that the market is heavily discounted and remains vulnerable to a sharp price move in either direction — depending on how strongly the USDA report meets or disappoints market expectations.
