Ukraine’s 2025 sunflower harvest may hit a 10-year low — ASAP Agri

Ukraine’s sunflower harvest in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach 11.4 million tons, down from the previous forecast of 12 million tons, according to ASAP Agri.

The downgrade reflects lower yields in key producing regions and harvest delays caused by weather conditions, which could result in the smallest sunflower crop in the past ten years, based on USDA data.

As of October 2, 2025, Ukrainian farmers had harvested 59% of the planted area — about 3.02 million hectares — producing 5.54 million tons of sunflower seeds. The average yield stands at 1.83 tons per hectare, well below potential levels, analysts noted.

“The main producing regions — Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, Odesa, and Kharkiv — were heavily affected by prolonged summer drought, with yields ranging between 0.5 and 1.6 tons/ha. Central and northern regions — Vinnytsia, Poltava, Cherkasy, and Chernihiv — show better results, but rains at the end of September and in October could cause further harvest delays and partial losses,” said Christina Serebriakova, CEO of ASAP Agri.

The agency also revised its 2024 sunflower harvest estimate from 12.9 million tons to 12.4 million tons, mainly due to adjustments in planted area.

For comparison, USDA projects 13 million tons for the 2024/25 season and 12.7 million tons for 2025/26, suggesting that further downward revisions may appear in upcoming WASDE reports.