Ukrainian soybeans and rapeseed between two fires: who will win 2025/26 — exporters or crushers? — ASAP Agri

The 2025/26 season is rapidly becoming one of the most telling and controversial for Ukraine’s soybean and rapeseed markets. For the first time in many years, the sector has split into two clear camps: crushers are pushing their operations as far as the current market conditions allow, while exporters are experiencing the weakest start to a season in a long time. And the numbers speak for themselves, marks Victoria Blazhko, Head of Editorial, Content and Analytics at ASAP Agri.

Ukraine crushed around 970 KMT of rapeseed between July–November and 860 KMT of soybeans between September–November. For comparison, exports over the same periods amounted to 1.2 MMT of rapeseed and 650 KMT of soybeans.

Victoria Blazhko

Head of Editorial, Content and Analytics at ASAP Agri

"For the first time in Ukraine’s history, domestic crushing is not only catching up with exports — it is beginning to surpass them. For markets traditionally oriented toward external supply, this represents a genuine paradigm shift."

The reasons behind this shift are complex. The introduction of a 10% export tax on soybeans and rapeseed in early September immediately undermined the attractiveness of export flows for traders. A delayed harvest limited soybean availability in the early months of the season. EU buyers acted cautiously due to uncertainty surrounding the implementation of the EUDR. Added to this were domestic logistical constraints and an overall decline in oilseed production — especially sunflower seed, which, according to ASAP Agri, may hit its lowest output in more than a decade in 2025/26. In such conditions, processors become far more active in securing alternative raw materials, with rapeseed and soybeans emerging as the key “lifelines” for keeping crushing plants operating.

The rapeseed market has seen very sharp changes. Between July–November, exports fell more than twofold on the year. Although the crop is smaller this season, the decline is modest — only around 200 KMT, to 3.3 MMT, according to Asap Agri, and does not explain the collapse in shipments. The main blow came from the export tax, which effectively knocked out the season’s traditional peak months: August exports dropped to 486 KMT from 879 KMT a year earlier, and September fell to 236 KMT from 673 KMT. EU imports also declined amid strong inflows of Australian canola and a solid domestic crop: 1.1 MMT vs. 2.2 MMT in the same period last year.

The picture is even more dramatic on the soybean market. Exports in September–November fell almost threefold compared with 1.7 MMT last season. The sharpest declines were seen in shipments to the EU, Pakistan, and Egypt. Turkey remains relatively stable, though volumes there are also down. Several factors pressured the market simultaneously: competition from U.S. soybeans, uncertainty around EUDR, the 10% export tax, and a smaller crop — ASAP Agri forecasts 5.6 MMT, down from last year’s record 7.1 MMT. As a result, the export model has become significantly less attractive, while domestic demand has strengthened.

This has become the main catalyst for the surge in Ukraine’s oilseed crushing. With ASAP Agri now projecting sunflower seed production at just 10.4 MMT this season, Ukraine’s more than 20 MMT of crushing capacity is more underutilized than ever. Plants are forced to look for alternative raw materials, and rapeseed and soybeans can at least partially bridge this gap. To such an extent that the season may become historic: rapeseed crushing is on track to reach a record 1.4 MMT, compared with 490 KMT last year, while soybean processing may rise to 3 MMT, adding another 200 KMT to last year’s volume and, for the first time, surpassing exports, which are projected at 2.2 MMT.

In addition, this year, crushers often appear more attractive to farmers, even though exporters are ready to offer higher prices. The reason is simple: in a year of raw material shortages, it is not just the price that matters, but also speed of payment, logistical simplicity, and stable demand — and across all these parameters, crushers clearly have the upper hand this year.

The 2025/26 season is still unfolding, but one thing is already clear: it may become a turning point for Ukraine’s oilseed sector. Domestic crushing is increasingly displacing exports, and the balance of power in the market is shifting toward crushing plants. Whether this is a one-time anomaly or the beginning of a deeper transformation will become clear in the coming years.