Rapeseed could become ‘gold’ for Ukrainian processors in January–June — Sunstone Brokers

Rapeseed may become the most profitable oilseed crop for Ukrainian processors in the first half of 2026 amid complicated export logistics and steady demand, particularly from Europe’s biofuel industry. Analysts expect Ukrainian crushing plants to step up procurement and significantly increase processing volumes — to 1.1–2 million tons, compared with about 0.5 million tons a year earlier.

“Rapeseed in January–June has the potential to become ‘gold’ for Ukrainian processors in terms of crush margins, as exports are constrained by the capacities and readiness of ports to handle shipments. Therefore, I expect that some plants, mainly in western Ukraine, will be happy to buy it,” said Serhii Repetskyi, Partner at Sunstone Brokers.

Rapeseed’s price outlook looks much stronger than that of soybeans, confirmed Bohdan Kostetskyi, Operating Partner at Barva Invest. Both Ukrainian processors and plants in Europe are ready to purchase it.

The introduced export duty will not affect planted areas for this crop, as rapeseed was sown starting in August 2025, before the law was signed. Therefore, if any reduction in acreage occurs, it will concern the 2027 crop, which will be sown in August–September. However, a significant cut in rapeseed acreage is unlikely, as the crop remains economically viable.

According to Kostetskyi, strong and relatively inelastic demand for Ukrainian rapeseed and rapeseed oil comes from the EU fuel industry, which needs this crop for biodiesel production. As a result, due to the duty and robust demand, a substantial increase in rapeseed processing in Ukraine is expected — from 0.5 million tons in 2025 to 1.1–2 million tons in 2026.