U.S. pushes Ukrainian soybeans out of Egyptian market — ASAP Agri
In the first four months of the 2025/26 season, Ukrainian soybean shipments to Egypt — one of Ukraine’s three key markets alongside Turkey and the EU — totaled just 38 KMT. This represents a decline of more than sixfold compared with 246 KMT in September–December 2024 and nearly twelvefold versus 478 KMT over the same period of the 2023/24 season, says Victoria Blazhko, Head of Editorial, Content and Analytics at ASAP Agri.
The simplest explanation is lower production and the export duty, and these factors did play a role. But the problem is deeper and more structural. For the second season in a row, Ukrainian soybeans have been losing ground in Egypt due to intense competition from the United States. U.S. soybeans are effectively crowding Ukrainian supply out of the market.
If in 2023/24 Egypt’s import structure looked relatively balanced — with the U.S. supplying about 41% and Ukraine holding a strong 33% — the picture changed sharply in 2024/25. The U.S. share surged to 76%, while Ukraine’s fell to 15%. In just one season, Egypt effectively shifted from diversified sourcing to near-total dependence on U.S. soybeans.
This trend is clearly confirmed by USDA weekly data. From September to December 2025, the U.S. exported over 2 MMT of soybeans to Egypt, compared with 1.4 MMT a year earlier. That volume already covers more than 40% of Egypt’s projected 4.9 MMT soybean imports for 2025/26. If current shipment rates persist, the U.S. could supply at least 80% of that volume.
Against this backdrop, demand for Ukrainian soybeans from Egyptian buyers is virtually absent. The market is constrained by a price gap: as of mid-January, Ukrainian exporters were offering 486–487 USD /MT CIF Egypt for February shipment, while buyers were willing to pay 474–475 USD /MT CIF. With U.S. suppliers dominating via large, stable, and competitively priced lots, this gap effectively removes Ukrainian soybeans from procurement lists.
Christina Serebriakova
CEO of ASAP Agri and broker at
Atria Brokers
“Egyptian and Turkish buyers are clear that, at current U.S. soybean offer prices, Ukrainian soybeans need to be at least 15 USD/MT cheaper to stay competitive. They are willing to move closer to Ukrainian price ideas only when there is uncovered demand between U.S. shipments.”
Yet Egypt was only recently a strategic market for Ukrainian soybeans. In 2023/24, exports to Egypt reached around 1 MMT, accounting for 46% of total export volumes. In 2024/25, shipments declined to 710 KMT, or 27%. In the current season, even an optimistic outlook points to exports of no more than a few hundred thousand tons, underscoring the continued erosion of Ukraine’s presence in the Egyptian market.