Growers in Ukraine have 7–10 years to adapt before part of south turns into desert — expert opinion
Agriproducers in Ukraine have between seven and ten years to adapt their production systems to climate change; otherwise, parts of the southern regions may lose their suitability for traditional agriculture. This was stated by Tetiana Adamenko, Head of the Agrometeorology Department at the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center, in an interview with Forbes Ukraine.
According to her, Ukraine’s climate is changing rapidly: winters are becoming shorter and warmer, while summers are growing hotter. In particular, 2024 became the warmest year on record, with the average temperature exceeding the norm by 2.4°C. In 2025, the deviation stood at +1.5°C, but temperatures may rise even further in the coming years.
These shifts are already forcing agribusinesses to reconsider their production geography.
“Agricultural holdings will migrate westward — it has become significantly warmer there compared to 20–30 years ago. Previously, growing corn in Volyn or Prykarpattia was almost impossible. Now they cultivate not only corn, but also sunflower and cereals there,” Adamenko noted.
Southern Ukraine is expected to suffer the greatest losses from heat stress, making irrigation development and the adaptation of crop varieties to arid conditions a key priority for growers.
“They have seven to ten years to adapt their agriculture before part of the south turns into desert. They must ensure irrigation and adapt varieties and crops capable of growing under such conditions. A classic example of this approach is Israel,” Adamenko emphasized.
At the same time, climate change is already affecting harvest timelines and the duration of vegetation periods. Due to high temperatures, crops mature earlier, shortening the growing cycle and increasing risks for yield stability.
