Talk of Ukrainian corn and soy replacing U.S. supplies in Spain is premature for now — ASAP Agri
Despite the high-profile statement made by the U.S. president on 3 March about a possible halt to trade with Spain, no formal decisions in the form of executive orders, sanctions, or an embargo have been made so far. Trade channels are operating as usual, which was also confirmed by Spain’s foreign minister on 11 March, ASAP Agri analysts told Latifundist.com.
Context. On 3 March 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump said he wanted to “stop all trade with Spain” over its disagreement with the U.S. military operation against Iran.
“The U.S. cannot in practice simply ‘switch off’ Spain, because trade is an EU competence. In other words, such a move would mean a conflict with the entire European Union, not just with one country,” the analysts noted.
ASAP Agri says that the U.S. has a trade surplus with Spain, amounting to around $4.8 billion in 2025.
“In other words, abruptly ‘closing the door’ on a partner you are making money with does not look economically. . . very logical,” the statement said.
Spain is currently actively buying U.S. corn. According to USDA data as of 26 February, U.S. exports to Spain this season have already reached 2.55 MMT, compared with 1.57 MMT a year earlier, while another 225 KMT remain in outstanding sales.
The analysts added that Spain’s feed industry is already deeply integrated into U.S. corn supplies, which are stable in quality and well embedded in existing logistics and contractual chains. This creates significant inertia in this trade flow.
“So for now, the idea that Ukrainian corn or soy is about to replace U.S. supplies to Spain looks premature. At this stage, it is more an element of geopolitical rhetoric than a real shift in trade flows,” the analysts concluded.
