Urea prices in Ukraine rise by UAH 10,000. OSTCHEM currently not selling
Urea prices in Ukraine continue to rise. As of March 11, imported urea on FCA port terms increased to UAH 40,000–42,000 per ton, about UAH 10,100/t higher than a week earlier, according to analysts at Barva Invest.
Despite the fact that the active phase of the corn planting campaign is still some time away, demand for urea remains strong. Agricultural companies, traders, and UAN (urea-ammonium nitrate) producers are all actively purchasing the product.
Expectations of a urea shortage on the Ukrainian market had already formed even before the escalation in the Middle East, analysts note.
For more than four years, Ukraine has effectively had only one operating urea producer — Cherkasy Azot, a part of the Ostchem group. In 2025, the plant produced 232,000 tons, which is 42% less than a year earlier. Moreover, most of the output was produced in the first half of the year, leaving limited carryover stocks.
Under these conditions, the supply of Ukrainian-produced urea remains constrained. OSTCHEM is currently not offering urea on the open market and has not announced prices.
Against this backdrop, the fertilizer-to-crop price ratio has deteriorated significantly.
“At the moment, purchasing one ton of urea requires 56% more corn and 57% more wheat than a year ago. After the price surge this week, this indicator has exceeded the average levels of recent years. The situation was worse only in 2022,” Barva Invest said.
High dependence on imports remains a key factor for the market. During the winter, traders actively imported urea from Nigeria, Azerbaijan, and Central Asian countries. However, the situation in the global market changed sharply after hostilities began in the Middle East.
Disruptions in urea shipments from Persian Gulf countries — among the world’s largest exporters — have led to a sharp rise in global prices and intensified competition for available volumes in the Black Sea and Mediterranean regions.
At the same time, Ukrainian importers are finding it increasingly difficult to secure available cargoes: a plant in Azerbaijan has been idle for more than a month, North African producers have already sold volumes through the end of March, and supplies from Central Asia remain limited.
Amid expectations of further price increases, some Ukrainian importers have already begun suspending sales.
Analysts expect urea prices to continue rising, although short-term corrections are possible. The market will be supported by limited supply, high gas prices, strong demand, and rising import costs. A potential depreciation of the hryvnia could become an additional factor.
At the same time, a possible easing of the surge in gas and fertilizer markets could lead to a slight price pullback, although a return to late-February price levels in the near term appears unlikely.
