Ukraine’s corn exports could fall by 9 million tons, wheat exports by nearly 4 million tons

In its August report, USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) revised its forecast for Ukrainian grain exports in the 2026/27 marketing year, cutting its estimates for corn and wheat exports most significantly amid Russian attacks on port infrastructure and civilian vessels in the Black Sea.

FAS Kyiv cut its corn export forecast to 14 million tons from the USDA’s official estimate of 23 million tons, a reduction of 9 million tons, or nearly 39%.

The wheat export forecast was also lowered, to 10.8 million tons from 14.5 million tons, a reduction of 3.7 million tons, or 25.5%.

At the same time, the barley export forecast was slightly increased to 2.5 million tons from 2.4 million tons.

FAS USDA attributed the revisions to the deteriorating security situation in the Black Sea. The report said Russia had intensified attacks on civilian vessels and Ukrainian port infrastructure. Although the maritime corridor has not been officially closed, shipowners are increasingly reluctant to enter the ports of Big Odesa due to high security risks, resulting in a shortage of shipping capacity.

FAS Kyiv estimates that under these conditions, Ukraine’s average monthly grain exports in the 2026/27 marketing year will amount to 2.3 million tons, below the average recorded in the first half of 2026.

The agency stressed, however, that the forecast could change depending on the security situation in the Black Sea and developments in land and river logistics.