Wet, Costly and Slow: What’s Going On in Ukraine's Corn Market

Photo by: Latifundist.com

“Bro, I have the money, but I need the corn in port before the 15th...” — that’s roughly how traders were talking today. The house is already on fire, and now the barn’s burning too. For weeks, traders were holding out, hoping to make it through. “My friend, there’s money — just bring the corn…” — that’s how Analytical Baton sums up the current mood in Ukraine’s corn market.

“After what happened with corn and barley in August–September, we decided not to play the long game anymore. Last summer, we couldn’t even gather 500 tons of corn — that was a signal,” says Vitalii Rachun, CEO of Brooklyn Trading.

The current corn season is a roulette game, traders admit. The market is flooded with high-moisture corn: most fields are still unharvested, dryers are overloaded, and farmers without their own drying capacities simply have nowhere to deliver wet grain.

“Maybe frost will help dry things up a bit,” Rachun hopes.

Latifundist.com looks into what’s happening in the corn market.

Wet Grain, Overheated Dryers

The market is now facing a technical squeeze. On paper, many traders appear covered, but in reality, the grain simply doesn’t arrive, says Andrii But, Director of Foreign Economic Activity at AGROTRADE Group.

As a result, traders are scrambling to find quick deliveries to close contracts and make shipment deadlines. That’s why the market feels so tense — the volumes seem there, but physically they aren’t.

One key reason is the shortage of dry corn.

“In recent years, everyone forgot about dryers — now we see queues at every facility that can handle drying,” Rachun says.

“What I see now is an inflated price for dry corn because of low supply. And everything offered in bulk is wet — I’m getting offers with 25% moisture.”

Corn with that level of moisture needs to be dried in phases to avoid overheating and quality loss — all of which increases production costs.

“I think this is clearly not in our favour, given record corn harvests in North America, weaker demand in Asian markets, and, as a result, rising competition in our key Mediterranean destinations,” the trader adds.

“Harvesting corn with 30–35% moisture just doesn’t pay off. Hauling water by truck or rail makes no sense — logistics have become too expensive. You can lose up to 15% of the weight in drying and pay about ₴1,500 per ton for transport,” confirms Kostiantyn Khalakhandryk, co-founder of White Brokers.

Heavy rains and high moisture are slowing the harvest — some farmers are deliberately holding back. As of November 6, growers in Ukraine harvested 1.68 million hectares of corn, producing 4.19 million tons — compared to 2.2 million hectares at this time last year.

“About 95% of our corn is still in the field. We’re waiting for frost to dry it out,” says Vitalii Onyshchuk, Director of TAS Agro West.

The cost of drying is now ₴140–180 per ton per percentage point of moisture. The company estimates that removing 10% moisture costs around $30 per ton.

Logistics Bottleneck

Only this week has anything started to move — and not just because of wet corn or a slow harvest, explains Mykhailo Voronych, CEO of Arista Trade.

“For my shipment period, vessel slots are double-booked, but nothing’s arriving in port. Only this week things began to shift. The issue isn’t just wet corn or delays in harvesting — it’s mainly about the situation with Ukrzaliznytsia (Ukrainian Railways).”

The situation, he says, feels similar to early 2022, when railcars were stuck at the western border. Now, they’re just standing idle mid-route.

“This is the main problem today — even more critical than moisture,” says Voronych.

Due to russia's attacks on infrastructure, rail throughput has fallen sharply, and trains take much longer to reach ports. Many vessels are now idle at anchor. The cost of rail and truck transport to ports has risen by 10–20% (₴200–400/t) in recent weeks, GrainTrade reports.

“russia is striking traction substations, bridges, and other infrastructure. Because of this, throughput capacity on some routes has decreased. That also negatively affects access to ports,” explained Valerii Tkachov, Deputy Director of Commercial Operations at Ukrzaliznytsia, during a recent meeting on improving agri-cargo logistics.

This directly impacts grain exports — about 95% of Ukraine’s grain exports move by rail to ports. Ukrzaliznytsia is increasing the number of trains heading to the Black Sea, Tkachov says, but volumes are still well below half a year ago: 35–40 trains per day, compared to 50–55 before.

According to Andrii But, logistics costs have risen by around ₴500 per ton ($10–12), affecting both current and forward contracts for November–December.

Adding pressure, several crops are being harvested simultaneously — corn, sunflower, and soybeans — further straining logistics. Until rail traffic stabilizes, the bottleneck won’t clear.

Prices Rising

This situation is pushing corn prices upward. According to GrainTrade, export demand prices for Ukrainian corn rose another ₴100–150/t last week to ₴9,750–9,900/t ($205–207/t) delivered to Black Sea ports in November. For December–January shipments, bids are around $202–205/t.

Khalakhandryk calls this season a “super-spot season.”

“In the super-spot market, prices were always a bit higher — but not this much. This time, the market keeps driving up the super-spot — first for early grains, now for corn. Today one can sell at $209–210, while December delivery fetches only $200–205, maybe $206,” he says.

Voronych also sees a widening gap between spot and December deliveries.

“For December, $200–205 is possible only for small lots. Real offers are closer to $207–208. You can find limited volumes at $205, but it’s not a mass trade,” he notes.

Farmers are in no rush to sell, expecting further price increases. They believe tighter supply will push prices up, says Khalakhandryk. Smaller and mid-sized farmers also prefer to sell later — traditionally, prices peak closer to the New Year.

At the same time, they find it more profitable to sell sunflower and soybeans, which bring quick cash — about ₴29,000/t for sunflower and ₴17,500–18,000/t for soybeans, Khalakhandryk adds. Corn, in this sales hierarchy, comes third.

The picture is different for agroholdings, many of which have already sold most of their corn.

“From what I see, holdings have sold around 70% of their corn — some even up to 90%,” says Khalakhandryk.

Andrii But says his company didn’t wait until autumn to start selling. Over half the corn was sold before active harvesting began — under forward contracts.

“We saw that the U.S. was actively entering Europe, especially Spain, and realized our sales opportunities would narrow to just a few markets — Turkey, Italy, Egypt. So, we focused on early contracting,” says Andrii But, Director of Foreign Economic Activity at AGROTRADE Group.

Under those forwards, the company pre-booked logistics, secured freight forwarders, and scheduled shipments for November–December. But due to rail delays and port congestion, sales are going slower than planned.

What about foreign demand? There are plenty of spot buyers who expected a harvest-pressure drop in Ukraine — assuming farmers would offload quickly and prices would fall, says Voronych.

Ukraine’s corn is now mainly going to Turkey, Egypt, Syria, and partially Spain and Italy. The only real alternative is the U.S., but American grain takes longer to arrive and schedule, the trader notes.

The logistics problem is likely to persist through the end of the year, meaning the market will stay slow.

“This isn’t like eight years ago, when we sold just to pay off loans. Now most have a financial cushion, their own elevators, and logistics,” Voronych concludes.

Kostiantyn Tkachenko, Latifundist.com