Ukrainian Corn 2025: Why Prices Reached $230/t CPT and What to Expect Next?
Photo by: Latifundist.com
The Ukrainian corn market is drawing attention due to rising prices surpassing $230 per ton on a CPT basis, strong demand, and shifts in global trade. Despite falling quotes on the Chicago Board of Trade, Ukraine is experiencing the opposite trend. What is driving this growth, and what lies ahead for exporters? Let's take a closer look.
Ukrainian Corn Prices: Current Situation
Christina Serebriakova, CEO of ASAP Agri. Over the past month, Ukraine's corn market has moved in the opposite direction compared to the global market. On the Chicago Board of Trade, U.S. corn futures have dropped by 10%, and the U.S. physical market has lost around $20/t due to tariffs imposed by the Trump administration and retaliatory actions from importing countries. In contrast, over the same period, Ukrainian corn prices on a CPT basis have increased by $3, reaching $230/t as of March 19, 2025. The sharpest price growth—by $10—was observed in the last two weeks.
Christina Serebriakova
CEO, ASAP Agri
"ASAP Agri identifies that this surge was mainly caused by a significant lineup in ports, coupled with rumors that nearly four Panamax vessels of Ukrainian corn have been sold. This could have been a Chinese destination or another buyer that triggered this price rally. As of today (March 20), buying ideas on CPT deep-water have reached $230/t. Naturally, this also impacts the FOB basis, where sellers are now at $241/t, while buyers are around $238-239/t. This trend is pushing Ukrainian corn prices higher on CIF destination markets as well."
Turkey: A New Import Stimulus
According to Olivier Bouillet, Head of Analytics & Insights at ASAP Agri, one of the key drivers behind the price increase has been Turkey's decision to introduce a new import quota. On March 18, the Turkish government announced a 1 MMT import quota for corn at a reduced 5% tariff, valid until June 30.
However, there are restrictions: each shipment cannot exceed 8,000 tons, and buyers must wait seven days before applying for a new quota, which is expected to slow the pace of imports.
According to broker Gözde Nur Karagöz, customs warehouses in Turkey are already filled with corn, meaning buyers will first use their existing stock. However, Koray Tüysüzoglu, CEO of Erser Group Turkey, believes imports will remain strong.
"I don't think this will truly slow down corn imports. Demand for coasters will remain high. Most importers will store their corn in bonded warehouses and wait without customs clearance," says Koray Tüysüzoglu.
As of March 17, Ukrainian corn prices had already reached $255/t CIF Iskenderun for Handysize shipments.
Christina Serebriakova
CEO, ASAP Agri
"We are closely monitoring two key destinations—Europe and Turkey. When the news broke on March 18 that Turkey was introducing a 1 MMT import quota with a 5% tariff, everyone immediately started calculating potential price gains. However, we analyzed Ukraine’s corn shipments to Turkey between March 1 and March 20 and found that Ukraine had already supplied around 500 KMT in 20 days. In February, we shipped approximately 300 KMT."
According to the CEO of ASAP Agri, Turkey’s bonded warehouses already hold about 700 KMT of corn. Some of it was re-exported, but a significant volume remains. This means that Turkey does not currently have a massive uncovered demand that would justify a sharp increase in purchases.
"On the contrary, we hear from many Turkish buyers that they are well-covered and not eager to buy Ukrainian corn at $253/t Marmara, as currently offered. Few buyers in Turkey are willing to pay more than $249/t Marmara. This price gap between buyers and sellers is quite sensitive—right now, everyone is competing over even half a cent. Closing deals is becoming increasingly difficult," notes Christina Serebriakova.
Thus, analysts do not expect a sharp increase in Ukrainian corn sales to Turkey.
EU: The Impact of the U.S. Trade War
The U.S.-EU trade war is creating new opportunities for Ukraine. According to USDA data, as of March 6, the U.S. had exported 2.7 MMT of corn to the EU—87 times more than in the same period last year.
The reason? A decline in Ukrainian production which made U.S. corn more competitive.
However, on March 12, the EU announced it would impose a 25% tariff on U.S. corn imports starting in April 2025 in response to U.S. tariffs on European steel and aluminum.
This was expected to shift demand toward Ukrainian corn, which meets EU import standards, especially given concerns over the quality of the European harvest. However, ASAP Agri reports that the tariff implementation has been postponed until mid-April 2025, and possibly longer.
Christina Serebriakova
CEO, ASAP Agri
"If we look at the EU market, an interesting picture emerges. Everyone expected the U.S. corn supply to be cut off due to the 25% tariff, which represents a $60 risk per ton. But, as ASAP Agri learned from Jorge de Saja, General Director of the Spanish Feed Industry Federation, who also advises the European Commission on trade matters, the tariff may not be implemented as quickly as expected. On March 20, the EU postponed the tariff introduction until mid-April. And when mid-April arrives, they might delay it again for a month or two—or even until Brazilian corn becomes available. This means the anticipated price support for Ukrainian corn may never materialize."
According to the European Commission, between February 18 and March 18, the EU imported around 400 KMT of U.S. corn.
"So, 400 KMT have already entered. Meanwhile, in Spain, U.S. corn is priced at around $240/t, while Ukrainian corn, factoring in the CPT increase and freight costs, is at $258/t. An $18 difference is significant," marks Christina Serebriakova.
As a result, Ukrainian corn is unlikely to find a market in the EU. The chances of it heading to Egypt are also slim, as U.S. corn is being offered there at lower prices.
A Window for Brazil?
Brazil could capitalize on this situation. According to Joana Colussi from the University of Illinois, the scenario resembles 2018 when China imposed tariffs on U.S. corn, allowing Brazil to gain market share.
"These tariffs could open a new window for Brazil. Remember 2018? When the trade war started, Brazil had no significant role. But then China opened its market to Brazilian corn, and now Brazil has another chance to expand its presence," says Joana Colussi.
Another crucial factor, noted by Olivier Bouillet, Head of Analytics at ASAP Agri, is the rising cost of freight. Higher shipping costs make Ukrainian grain less attractive to buyers in Europe and the Mediterranean.
Freight department of Atria Brokers estimates rates as follows:
- Panamax from Ukraine to South China: $35–36/t (+$4 in a month)
- Handysize (30,000 t) to East Coast Italy: $16–17/t (+$1 in a month)
- Coasters (6,000 t) from Danube ports to Italy: $30–32/t (+$4 in a month)
- Barges (1,000–3,000 t) from Danube ports to Constanța: €8–9/t (unchanged)
Christina Serebriakova
CEO, ASAP Agri
"Right now, we see a price level of $230/t CPT, which is already very favorable for farmers. However, whether Ukrainian corn prices will continue to be supported depends on further sales. I don’t see strong price support ahead—data and market coverage indicate otherwise."
So, the corn market is at a peak, and demand remains high. However, how long will this last? The answer depends on export dynamics, demand from China and the EU, and further policy decisions from Turkey.
