Ukrainian corn market on fire: prices soar amid surging demand and global trade shifts — ASAP Agri
Ukrainian corn prices are once again reaching seasonal highs, matching levels last seen around 25 February, and even surpassing them. This surge comes despite a 10% drop in Chicago corn prices on the spot market over the past month, Olivier Bouillet, the Head of Analytics & Insights at ASAP Agri, told Latifundist.com.
But how is such a price increase possible when export availability remains high? So far, less than 13 million tons of Ukrainian corn have been exported this season — well below the USDA’s target of 22 MMT for 2024/25.
Olivier Bouillet
Head of Analytics & Insights at
ASAP Agri
"A major boost came on 18 March, when Turkey announced a 1 MMT corn import quota, creating new opportunities for Ukrainian exporters. This announcement alone was enough to push Ukrainian corn prices past previous seasonal highs."
One of the key factors supporting higher prices is also quality. Ukrainian-origin corn is among the few options in Europe that can guarantee the standards importers demand, particularly in a year when major EU producers are struggling with poor crop quality. This gives Ukrainian sellers stronger bargaining power in negotiations.
At the same time, the trade war initiated by Mr. Trump is reshaping global corn trade flows. Major buyers such as Mexico, the EU, and China are reducing their reliance on U.S. corn, while Brazilian supplies won’t be available until early summer. Against this backdrop, some Ukrainian traders have reportedly secured contracts with China at prices exceeding 260 USD/Mt CIF.
Another factor strengthening Ukrainian corn’s competitiveness is rising freight costs. Over the past month, global shipping rates have surged, making distant origins less attractive. As a result, Ukrainian corn is becoming a more cost-effective option for nearby markets, such as the Mediterranean and Europe.
As of 19 March, Ukrainian corn was trading at up to 230 USD/MT CPT — a price level that many sellers had been aiming for. While this is expected to boost liquidity, it could also limit further price increases in the very short term.
