World grain stocks forecast lower by end of 2019/20

The forecast for world grain stocks by the close of the 2020 seasons has been raised by 2.4 mln t since the previous month to 850 mln t, but still down 17 mln t (2.0%) from their opening levels, FAO informs.

"This month’s higher forecast for ending stocks, combined with a lower forecast for utilization, results in a slightly higher stocks-to-use ratio for total grains in 2019/20, now projected at 30.4%, still down slightly from 31.9% in 2018/19," the report reads.

Among the major grains, global wheat inventories are anticipated to register a 1.6% (4.2 mln t) increase from their record-high opening level to total 273 mln t — the second-highest on record. The increase is expected to be concentrated in Asia, in particular in China and, to a lesser extent, India, more than offsetting anticipated declines in several major exporting countries.

By contrast, despite this month’s higher forecast of ending stocks in the United States, world corn inventories are still foreseen to register a significant decline in 2019/20, falling by as much as 7% (25 mln t) from their relatively high opening levels to a 4-year low of 337 mln t.

"This is mostly because of a predicted sharp drop in corn stocks in China, making up almost 70% of the year-on-year projected decrease," analysts note.

As a reminder, harvesting of grain and leguminous crops in Ukraine as of October 3rd was conducted on the area of 11.6 mln ha or 76% of the total. The crop reached 48.3 mln t using the average yield of 4.17 t/ha (2018: 3.71 t/ha).