UGA revised downward its corn and sunflower production forecast on drought

The forecast for the gross yield of grains and oilseeds in 2020/21 was revised downward by the Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) by 9% from 95.6 mln t to 87.5 mln t as a result of adverse weather conditions for the harvest of late crops. The forecast for exports in the current season decreased from 56.3 mln t to 53.9 mln t.

"The forecast for corn harvest has been significantly reduced, as unfavourable weather conditions in August and September this year negatively affected yield indicators, although the total crop remains quite high," UGA says in a statement.

Corn production is projected at 32.5 mln t, 8% lower from the September forecast of 35.3 mln t. Corn export is forecasted at 27.2 mln t (previous forecast: 29 mln t).

UGA significantly reduced the forecast of gross sunflower yield from 16.1 mln t to 12.9 mln t due to a decrease in yield from the expected 2.5 t/ha to 2 t/ha as a result of drought.

In its report, the association adjusted its estimate of the volume of wheat harvest, which was reduced from 26.6 mln t to 25.3 mln t. At the same time, the estimate of wheat exports remains at 17.5 mln t, as agreed in the Memorandum between market participants and the Ministry for the Development of Economy, Trade and Agriculture. The estimate of barley harvest was reduced to 8 mln t (September report: 8.3 mln t) and its export to 4.2 mln t (4.5 mln t).

"Ukrainian agriproducers continue preparations for the upcoming season and have already sown 47% or 3.85 mln ha of the planned 8.1 mln ha of winter crops. The recent rains nearly all over the country have improved soil moisture level for sowing and development of winter crops," UGA comments.

As a reminder, USDA forecast of corn production in Ukraine in 2020/21 was reduced by 2 mln t to 36.5 mln t (38.5 mln t in the September USDA report).