Grains bulk yield in Ukraine forecast 9% higher

The National Scientific Center Institute of Agrarian Economics forecast grains bulk yield in Ukraine in 2021 at 70.7 mln t, 8.8% higher YoY (2020: 65 mln t). After the record year of 2019, this will be Ukraine's second-largest grain production since 1991.

According to the Director of the Scientific Center Yuri Lupenko, the rise in the gross harvest of grain and leguminous crops will be mainly due to a record harvest of winter wheat at 28.5 mln t and winter barley at 3.95 mln t, as well as an increase from 29.8 mln t to 31.1 mln t for corn, which represents the largest share in Ukraine's crop production.

"Spring barley also holds a high share in the new crop. However, while production of this crop was 5 mln t in 2019 and fell to 4.5 mln t last year, it is expected to fall further to 4.4 mln t this year. Winter cereal volumes will grow the most among all crops, by 15.9% against 2020. The yields will be higher for all crops — wheat, rye, and barley. Spring cereals will grow by 3.1% and leguminous crops by 8.7%," the expert says.

Yuri Lupenko notes that the decrease in the bulk yield will be registered for the following crops:

  • oats: 19.5%
  • millet: 17.7%
  • rice: 8.3%
  • spring barley: 1.4%

The positive dynamics of winter crop production will be achieved by expanded sown areas, with wheat increasing by 360,000 ha, rye by 31,500 ha, and barley by 77,000 ha, as well as higher crop yields of these crops. According to the Institute of Agrarian Economics, producers will harvest 4.25 t of wheat, 3.1 t of rye, and 3.7 t of barley per hectare.

As reported, the downward trend in the production of the above crops is projected to be driven by a reduction in the sown area.

"Gross harvest volumes for grain crops have been calculated chiefly based on the average model, while the optimistic model may yield almost 80 mln t and the pessimistic model 67.7 mln t. The final result will depend on the weather conditions of the year and may well boost in favour of the optimistic forecast, which demonstrates the industry's current potential," Lupenko concludes.

Spring crops sowing campaign in Ukraine was 28% completed as of April 22.

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