China stimulates demand for Ukraine corn through 2021/22: UkrAgroConsult
China imported more than 10 mln t of Ukrainian barley and corn in July-Apr 2020/21, 59% up than for the entire previous season, the consulting agency UkrAgroConsult writes.
According to the report, it is not only Ukraine increasing the export of feed crops to China.
"Since the US-China Phase 1 trade deal came into force in 2020, corn shipments from the US have grown sharply. The US share in the total corn supply to China summed 38% in the calendar 2020, 52% in 1Q 2021," analysts mark.
With the 2021/22 season approaching, the demand for the new crop grain is intensifying. China booked more than 12 mln t of US corn of the 2021/22 harvest and about 5 mln t of Ukrainian corn by market experts' estimates. This rush, according to experts, has caused a sharp rise in forward prices and a shortening of the spread between forward and spot prices.
Analysts estimate that the recovery of the pig herd in China as well corn import substitution efforts through improving the yield of the own crop takes time, so active imports of the crop should be expected to continue in 2021/22.
Previously reported that corn export from Ukraine as of May 24 reached 20.42 mln t, 27% down YoY. The volume exported accounts for 85% of the corn amount agreed in the MoU for 2020/21.