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FAO: World grain trade 2021/22 forecast adjusted down
6 September 2021, 07:45
The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) revised downward its forecast for the world trade in cereals in 2021/22 to 466 mln t, 6.2 mln t below the July projection and 1.3% (6.2 mln t) lower than the record 2020/21. FAO expects contractions in wheat and coarse grains trade to outweigh a foreseen expansion in the global rice trade.
The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)
"At 185 mln t, the forecast for world wheat trade in 2021/22 (July/June) has been cut by 4.3 mln t since July, and now points to a decline of 1.4% (2.7 mln t) from the record level in 2020/21"
China, Morocco and Pakistan may import less in 2021/22, compared with their purchases in 2020/21 owing to higher production and stocks.
As regards export, reduced production prospects are seen lowering wheat shipments in 2021/22 from the USA, the Russian Federation and especially Canada, where exports are forecast to potentially fall to a 19-year low.
This month’s forecast for world trade in coarse grains stands at 232.3 mln t, down 2.3 mln t from July.
"The reduction is led by a cut in global maize trade in view of reduced import demand from the European Union, due to a higher production forecast, and smaller-than-earlier-projected maize exports from Brazil and the USA, as a result of tighter supplies," FAO analysts explain.
As of 1 September, 8.63 mln t of grain was exported from Ukraine. Wheat shipment since the start of 2021/22 is 8% lower YoY.
