Barley prices in Ukraine surge to USD 400

Forward prices for Ukrainian feed barley of the 2022 crop on the FOB Black Sea basis have been climbing since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the APK-Inform consultancy writes.

This is explained by the undetermined timeframe for restoring grain exports from Ukraine via seaports. Also, the price is driven by ambiguous forecasts about the duration of the war and the issue of shipping safety after it ends amid reports of the Black Sea water areas being mined.

The bulk yield of grain in general, and of barley in particular, is expected to decrease this year, given the expected reduction in the area sown with spring crops. Consequently, there is a high probability that yields will fall if fieldwork cannot be completed in time.

In wheat, future crop prospects are modestly mitigated by forecasts of fairly high carry-over stocks, while domestic barley stocks are limited, providing additional support to prices.

By the end of last week, forward supply/demand prices for 2022/23 barley for the delivery in July-August from Black Sea ports reached 330-350 USD/t and 370-395 USD/t FOB.

Previously reported that Ukraine is expected to harvest around 70% of last season's crop.