Rain-damaged wheat floods Ukrainian market, triggering sharp price cuts

Prolonged rains in July and early August have significantly affected wheat quality in northern and western Ukraine, according to GrainTrade.

A portion of the crop has been infected with fungi such as Alternaria and smut. While this wheat generally lacks foreign odor and can be used as feed grain, elevators and terminals are classifying it as substandard and storing it separately from standard feed wheat (Grade 4).

As rainfall subsided, harvesting accelerated, and farmers rushed to the market with large volumes of feed and substandard wheat. This has led to the perception that the share of feed grain will be significant this season.

Elevators report incoming wheat with 20–60% fungal damage. Some refuse to accept shipments with smut levels exceeding 25%.

The surge in feed wheat supply has widened the price gap — the difference between feed and milling wheat now stands at UAH 800–900/t. Substandard wheat sells for UAH 400–600/t less than feed wheat.

As of early August, milling wheat prices (delivered to Black Sea ports) remain at UAH 10,700–10,900/t ($226–230/t), while feed wheat Grade 4 has dropped to UAH 9,600–9,800/t ($203–210/t). Substandard wheat with 11–25% smut content is priced at UAH 8,900–9,200/t.

Dry and warm weather expected over the coming week should help complete the harvest, allowing for better assessment of crop quality and clearer market outlooks.