August WASDE: grains knocked down, but game far from over — ASAP Agri
The USDA’s August WASDE report hit market players like an unexpected uppercut in the final round. Corn took the hardest blow: a record U.S. crop was in the forecasts, but the scale exceeded even the boldest expectations. Wheat is also under pressure — an anticipated influx of feed grain is dragging prices down, despite multi-year low stocks and reduced harvests in certain regions, says Victoria Blazhko, Head of Editorial, Content and Analytics at ASAP Agri.
USA: corn records pressure prices
USDA pegged U.S. corn production in 2025/26 at 424.3 MMT thanks to expanded harvested area and a jump in yields from July’s from 181 BU/ACR to 188.8 BU/ACR (11.85 MT/HA) — an absolute all-time high. The yield forecast not only broke through the upper range of market expectations but also violated the USDA’s unwritten rule of raising estimates cautiously, step by step. Exports were raised to 73 MMT and ending stocks to 53.7 MMT — the highest since 2018/19.
For the market, the signal was clear: there will be more than enough corn. The result — Chicago corn futures plunged to their lowest levels since 2020, pulling wheat down with them.
Still, the big question is whether these figures will “hold” in the next reports. Conditions for U.S. corn crops are now close to ideal in most key regions, but history shows that in the past decade, August yield forecasts rarely survived to the end of the season unchanged. By September or October, USDA usually makes adjustments based on real field data, which immediately impacts production forecasts. On average, final yields turned out 0.5–1 BU/ACR lower than the August forecast. Last year, for instance, the August estimate of 183.1 BU/ACR rose in September to 183.6 BU/ACR, in October to 183.8 BU/ACR, but finally dropped to 179.3 BU/ACR — yet another reminder that August records don’t guarantee a final triumph.
That said, almost no one doubts that this year the U.S. will break its own record and most likely harvest over 400 MMT of corn.
Ukraine: will it really be 32 MMT of corn?
The August WASDE raised Ukraine’s 2025/26 corn production forecast to 32 MMT (+1.5 MMT m/m) thanks to an expansion in harvested area. But this optimism still needs to pass the “reality test.” If recent rains in the north and west replenished soil moisture without damaging crops, higher yields in these regions could offset losses in the dry east and south and push the total above 30 MMT. To check how closely USDA’s estimate matches the real situation, the ASAP Agri team is considering a September crop tour — with measuring tapes, notebooks, and frank conversations with farmers right in the fields.
USDA’s wheat forecast for Ukraine remained unchanged at 22 MMT. This is almost identical to ASAP Agri’s June crop tour findings across eight key producing regions — 21.7 MMT (–3% y/y).
EU: wheat rising, corn under drought pressure
USDA increased its 2025 EU wheat production forecast by 1 MMT to 138.3 MMT, the highest since 2021/22. The main drivers of growth are Romania and Slovakia, where the weather has played in farmers’ favour this season. Alongside production, the export forecast was also raised, which means tougher competition and stronger pressure on Ukrainian grain in traditional markets.
In russia, the wheat crop forecast remained at 83.5 MMT, although local agencies are already suggesting figures closer to 85 MMT, citing expanded acreage and strong yields in central regions.
Meanwhile, EU corn tells the opposite story: July heat and moisture deficits in the Balkans and southeastern Europe forced USDA to cut its 2025/26 production forecast to 58 MMT (–2 MMT m/m). This partially softens the global surplus, but the U.S. “super crop” more than offsets these losses. Conversely, the EU corn import forecast was raised by 1.5 MMT to 22 MMT — a positive signal for Ukraine, which remains one of the key suppliers to the European market.
Global stocks 2025/26: thin cushion for risk
The August WASDE reminds us that even in a season of records, the two flagship grains enter the new marketing year with the smallest ending stocks in a decade. Corn stocks — 282.6 MMT, with the stocks-to-use ratio holding at just 22%, barely above the critical threshold. Wheat stocks — 260.1 MMT, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 32%, also the lowest in 10 years. For both crops, this means heightened vulnerability to any production or logistical disruptions, and for the market — a nervous reaction even to minor weather news.