Sunflower oil on the boil: Black Sea tightness sends prices to three-year highs — ASAP Agri

This autumn, the Black Sea sunflower seed market is tightening fast. Ukraine — one of the world’s largest sunflower seed producers — is heading into one of its weakest harvests in recent memory, and the oil market is already feeling it in prices.

This week, sunflower oil prices on an FOB 6 ports basis have burst through 1400 USD/MT for November shipment — the first time since September 2022 — adding nearly 100 USD/MT in just one month, Viktoria Blazhko, head of editorial content and analytics at ASAP Agri, told Latifundist.com.

The rally has gathered momentum, fueled by slow farmer selling, harvest delays, and strong nearby demand amid scarce offers.

If tightness persists towards November, traders warn that 1500 USD/MT may be the next psychological threshold, while the season itself may turn out to be one of the tightest in recent years.

Ukraine: decade-low yields and rain-hit quality

According to ASAP Agri, Ukraine’s 2025/26 sunflower seed crop has been cut again — now projected at 10.8 MMT, the lowest level in a decade.

By 23 October, 82% of the area had been harvested, producing roughly 7.8 MMT with an average yield of 1.85 MT/HA — well below 2.06 MT/HA at the same stage last year.

Persistent dryness in Dnipro, Kropyvnytskyi, Mykolaiv, and Odesa sharply reduced yields, while October rains further delayed harvesting, worsened quality, and raised acidity levels in unharvested fields across central and western regions.

“Rains are raising acidity and hurting quality, but sunflower remains the most profitable crop — so farmers are trying to finish harvest as fast as they can,” said Christina Serebriakova, CEO of ASAP Agri and broker at Atria Brokers.

With limited supply and deteriorating quality, farmers are holding back sales, expecting firmer prices. Crushers’ coverage for November remains insufficient. This week, Ukrainian sunflower seeds are trading around 675–685 USD/MT equivalent (VAT included) on a CPT-south plant basis, supporting FOB oil prices near 1280 USD/MT — a level last seen in early November 2022

russia: production also slips

Across the border, the picture looks better — but far from perfect. By 20 October, russia had harvested 72% of its sunflower area — 8.8 MHA out of 12.2 MHA planted — yielding around 13.3 MMT, which is 1.3 MMT below last year’s level.

Harvesting remains steady in the Central and Volga regions, yet the national yield has slipped from 1.66 to 1.51 MT/HA, largely due to prolonged dryness in southern areas such as Krasnodar, Rostov, and Stavropol.

Even with solid progress elsewhere, analysts now expect russia’s total 2025/26 sunflower crop at 17.2–17.5 MMT, well below the 19 MMT initially projected.

Amid weaker crop prospects, russian sellers — constrained by higher export taxes (around 95 USD/MT in October) — are unable to cut sunflower oil prices and continue offering largely at parity with Ukraine.

Market reaction: sunflower oil sellers lift offers at destinations

As of 22 October:

• FOB six-port offers stood at 1415 USD/MT for November shipment, with the November–December shipment trading at 1400 USD/MT earlier in the week.
• CIF India offers were around 1360 USD/MT — up 60 USD/MT m/m — and are likely to climb further as most refiners remain uncovered, according to trade sources.
• Meanwhile, CIF Mersin offers rose to 1345 USD/MT (+65 USD/MT m/m), with bids near 1330 USD/MT rarely accepted.

In the near term, momentum remains upward, supported by tight Black Sea supply and strong nearby demand. Some softening may occur into and over the winter amid a seasonal increase in supply following harvest completion, while a further easing could be expected from March onward, when additional Argentine volumes enter the market — provided no new geopolitical shocks disrupt the Black Sea region.