UGA forecasts higher grain and oilseed harvest next year compared to season 2025

The Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA) forecasts the country’s grain and oilseed harvest at 81.4 million tons in 2025, compared to 79 million tons in 2024.

According to UGA, with such a harvest, Ukraine’s export potential for the current season could reach 49 million tons (vs. 46.7 million tons last season).

However, the realization of this optimistic scenario depends heavily on resolving severe logistical challenges caused by russian strikes on critical infrastructure. Damage to railways, ports, and widespread electricity shortages significantly limit Ukraine’s ability to export large volumes, which could negatively impact farmers and the national economy.

UGA’s crop-specific forecasts for 2025:

Wheat: 22.5 million tons (2024 — 22.4 million tons). Potential exports in 2025/2026 MY could reach 16.5 million tons.

Barley: 4.9 million tons (2024 — 5.6 million tons), with export potential of about 2.3 million tons.

Corn: A strong result expected thanks to favourable weather and good yields — 32 million tons (2024 — 25.9 million tons). Potential exports could reach 25 million tons if logistics remain unimpeded.

Sunflower: 11.5 million tons (2024: 12.8 million tons). Nearly all — 11.4 million tons — will be processed domestically; exports will not exceed 50,000 tons.

Rapeseed: 3.2 million tons (2024 — 3.8 million tons), with export potential of only 2.1 million tons due to increased domestic processing.

Soybeans: About 5 million tons (2024 — 6.8 million tons), reflecting smaller acreage and weaker yields. Potential exports in 2025/2026 MY — 2.5 million tons, with the remainder processed domestically due to legislative export restrictions.

UGA added that based on already known winter crop areas and expected spring plantings, Ukraine’s potential 2026 grain and oilseed harvest could reach 84.5 million tons, with possible exports of around 50 million tons.